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 HV Research Thread, Let's find out how stuff really works |
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Nov 19 2019, 13:50
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Ming28561
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 1,262
Joined: 7-July 17
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Thanks for both of your help.
But I am confused that there are some differences between the data of EDB from lestion and SSSSS2.
Anyway, It is impossible to get Peerless radiant of Niflheim. So PARD is the best choose for non-imperil Cold users
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Nov 19 2019, 14:11
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Sapo84
Group: Gold Star Club
Posts: 3,332
Joined: 14-June 09
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QUOTE(Ming28561 @ Nov 19 2019, 12:50) 
But I am confused that there are some differences between the data of EDB from lestion and SSSSS2.
If I have to guess lestion forgot to factor in the base MDB you get from your stats which may help elementalist more than destruction. QUOTE(lestion @ Nov 19 2019, 12:34)
Sure, I can model that (except the int+wis, which is getting very specific and does not really add much - maybe ~10 mdb difference? If you can give me different numbers, I'd be willing to rework it).
It should be in the range of 20-30MDB/piece. It won't make a difference unless the values are really close. This post has been edited by Sapo84: Nov 19 2019, 14:13 |
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Nov 19 2019, 14:16
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sssss2
Group: Gold Star Club
Posts: 3,955
Joined: 11-April 14
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[attachembed=136089]
This is the chart using my current equipment.
Peerless Staves and Legendary Radiants, Cottons.
1. Willow + Cotton Robe
2. Redwood of Destruction + Cotton Pants
3. Redwood of the Elementalist
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Nov 19 2019, 14:34
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Nezu
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 3,931
Joined: 29-January 12
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QUOTE(Sapo84 @ Nov 19 2019, 12:11)
If I have to guess lestion forgot to factor in the base MDB you get from your stats which may help elementalist more than destruction.
My MDB values are approximate based on what I actually have, minus what I get from radiants. It's not exact, maybe around 100 off. sssss2's stat values should be exactly correct - he calculates things like that very exhaustively (while I get a little lazy and say 'good enough'). BTW, we actually have exactly the same EDB values - mine just add the base 100% visually (while sssss2 most likely applies it in his calculation, and only shows the EDB from gear). However, I am not sure how he calculates the distribution of resists. This is actually quite a complicated problem - there are 3 rolls of x%, but the successes do not need to be consecutive. Mathematically, this is binomial distribution, but I am not a mathematician - rather, I am a programmer - so instead, I wrote a program to simulate the resist rolls for a spell cast and simply ran it 10,000,000 times. On the other hand, my method would be completely inappropriate for the sake of a utility like HVUtils. If the counter-resist changes at all, I must re-run the simulation and get new values. I have read the code for this section of HVUtils, but I am still not completely sure how it works. Likely this is the source for our differences, and I would argue that mine is a more accurate comparison between setups because of it (proportionally). The actual average damage numbers on mine also do not consider magic resist (which doesn't change regardless of which setup you use, except for holy once the debuff is active), or different tiers of spell (it only looks at T3 spells), or crits at all (though again, this is not really a big factor unless you're using a Focus staff or the crit IW potencies). edit: I've verified sssss2's method for generating resist rolls. I don't understand why it works, but it IS correct. This post has been edited by lestion: Nov 19 2019, 17:42 |
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Nov 19 2019, 18:39
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Nezu
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 3,931
Joined: 29-January 12
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Ming pointed out that my EDB values for Redwood of Destruction were wrong. I don't actually know how this happened. I was pulling data from my own spreadsheet with correct values... Anyway, here is the correct table for full radiant setups, comparing Redwood Elementalist to Redwood Destruction:  This now agrees nicely with sssss2's data. This is bad news! Who wants to forge 5 phases? I will go back and fix my older posts in a moment. I will note the following conclusions to the old research changed: At 600 base prof: Back in line with my original research, Willow works out slightly better than Redwood of Destruction against 27.1% monsters (and I've talked about why I think these monsters are more important to measure against than the average 21.6%), while Redwood is a very tiny amount better against 21.6% resist. This post has been edited by lestion: Nov 19 2019, 18:54 |
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Nov 20 2019, 10:26
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Noni
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 13,135
Joined: 19-February 16
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4+1 0.964 prof dark build:
Arenas
492 turns 0:02:56 (2.795 t/s) 2 riddles - 100 round infusion zebra Tuesday
445 turns 0:02:35 (2.871 t/s) 1 riddle - 90 round infusion zebra Tuesday
461 turns 0:02:42 (2.846 t/s) 2 riddles - 100 round infusion Dark Mage Wednesday
418 turns 0:02:25 (2.883 t/s) 1 riddle - 90 round infusion Dark Mage Wednesday
IWBHfest:
Dark build:
6,764 turns 0:43:48 (2.574 t/s) 16 riddle
Zebra Mage (T3 holy mixed in):
6,709 turns 0:49:59 (2.237 t/s) 17 riddles
Zebra is equal or slightly better at IW100 and at IWBTHfest. Worse at Arena's, SG arena's and PFFEST. Disappointing... Still, a very good way to grind holy proficiency.
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Nov 20 2019, 12:56
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BlueWaterSplash
Group: Members
Posts: 3,307
Joined: 15-March 11
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Even on IWBTHfest your zebra mage took longer due to far worse t/s.
Why is your t/s is generally lower as a zebra mage? Is it because you get beat up more due to T3 having longer cast time?
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Nov 20 2019, 14:40
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Noni
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 13,135
Joined: 19-February 16
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QUOTE(BlueWaterSplash @ Nov 20 2019, 11:56)
Even on IWBTHfest your zebra mage took longer due to far worse t/s.
Why is your t/s is generally lower as a zebra mage? Is it because you get beat up more due to T3 having longer cast time?
On arenas there is no difference, other than tuns. On fest, I had to tkae a break for urgent matters during the zebra fest |
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Nov 21 2019, 08:31
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Ming28561
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 1,262
Joined: 7-July 17
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QUOTE(DJNoni @ Nov 20 2019, 10:26)
Zebra is equal or slightly better at IW100 and at IWBTHfest. Worse at Arena's, SG arena's and PFFEST. Disappointing... Still, a very good way to grind holy proficiency.
So it seems that you will use Zebra to gain holy prof because its total turn is only slightly worse ? So how many holy prof do you have now? I think this will be one factor in judging Zebra's effectiveness. (Thanks to google translation) |
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Nov 21 2019, 08:33
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Noni
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 13,135
Joined: 19-February 16
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QUOTE(Ming28561 @ Nov 21 2019, 07:31)
So it seems that you will use Zebra to gain holy prof because its total turn is only slightly worse ?
So how many holy prof do you have now? I think this will be one factor in judging Zebra's effectiveness.
(Thanks to google translation)
Yes, that is what I use it for. Holy Prof: 545 |
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Nov 24 2019, 22:08
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Noni
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 13,135
Joined: 19-February 16
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QUOTE(DJNoni @ Nov 20 2019, 09:26)
4+1 0.964 prof dark build:
Arenas
492 turns 0:02:56 (2.795 t/s) 2 riddles - 100 round infusion zebra Tuesday
445 turns 0:02:35 (2.871 t/s) 1 riddle - 90 round infusion zebra Tuesday
461 turns 0:02:42 (2.846 t/s) 2 riddles - 100 round infusion Dark Mage Wednesday
418 turns 0:02:25 (2.883 t/s) 1 riddle - 90 round infusion Dark Mage Wednesday
IWBHfest:
Dark build:
6,764 turns 0:43:48 (2.574 t/s) 16 riddle
Zebra Mage (T3 holy mixed in):
6,709 turns 0:49:59 (2.237 t/s) 17 riddles
Zebra is equal or slightly better at IW100 and at IWBTHfest. Worse at Arena's, SG arena's and PFFEST. Disappointing... Still, a very good way to grind holy proficiency.
3+2 dark 3 charged, 2 radiants: zebra mage IwBTH fest 6,874 turns. Worse, but that's to be expected. |
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Dec 23 2019, 21:34
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Nezu
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 3,931
Joined: 29-January 12
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QUOTE(sssss2 @ Oct 24 2019, 17:28) ...
It's been 2 months since sssss2 made this excellent post about monster data in real play, and I've repeated the experiment myself, with a couple additional parameters. I did 20x PFUDOR grindfest @ level 500 to record this. The total number of unique monsters seen was 2631. I fought a total of 175,606 monsters. The average power level by appearances was 1739. This is the average level of monsters you fight over a whole fest. The average power level by monsters was 1546. This is the average level of unique player owned monsters. I'm not sure if my explanation was very clear there, so for example: if you had 1 level 500 monster, and 2 level 250 monsters, their average power level would be 333~ ((500+250+250) / 3). But if a level 500 monster appears 2 times while each of the 250s appear 1 time, the average by appearance would be 375 ((500+500+250+250) / 4) To read this table: - Rank is self-explanatory - players are ranked by the 'Counted' column (in shared cases, I think it's just whatever monster was recorded first in my data)
- Monsters is the total amount of unique monsters I saw owned by that player
- Counted is the amount of times I saw any monster owned by that player
- Avg/Count is the average monster plvl by count (total power level / appearances)
- Avg/Monster is the average monster plvl by number of recorded monsters (total power level / monsters)
- Total pLvl is the cumulative power level of all monsters owned by that player.
One more note: the trainers whose names are entirely ?s are like that in the database. I didn't scan the monsters so I don't know if this is the case in HV itself and they're special characters that don't get converted properly or something. I can't verify whether these are multiple players whose names come out as the same thing or not. Shit, gotta add the table to a separate post now due to length, one moment please... This post has been edited by lestion: Dec 24 2019, 06:03 |
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Dec 23 2019, 21:47
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Nezu
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 3,931
Joined: 29-January 12
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The data. CODE | Rank | Trainer | Monsters | Counted | Avg/Count | Avg/Monster | Total pLvl |
|--------|----------------------|------------|-----------|-------------|---------------|--------------|
| 1 | Nero-Arc | 199 | 16597 | 1666 | 1646 | 327646 |
| 2 | serorin | 115 | 14139 | 1697 | 1663 | 191277 |
| 3 | morineko | 200 | 13402 | 1617 | 1575 | 315096 |
| 4 | sssss2 | 200 | 11356 | 1924 | 1552 | 310500 |
| 5 | gc00018 | 97 | 11166 | 1716 | 1665 | 161557 |
| 6 | Petal_Kiss | 200 | 9526 | 1716 | 1505 | 301128 |
| 7 | MidNightPass | 84 | 8930 | 1640 | 1606 | 134930 |
| 8 | FreeloaderV | 101 | 8830 | 1782 | 1603 | 161919 |
| 9 | NerfThis | 200 | 6381 | 1795 | 1485 | 297156 |
| 10 | Sushilicious | 134 | 5244 | 1503 | 1474 | 197573 |
| 11 | RoadShoe | 200 | 4767 | 1580 | 1470 | 294062 |
| 12 | Koaen | 7 | 3384 | 2214 | 2209 | 15469 |
| 13 | tempasdf | 14 | 3139 | 1728 | 1728 | 24196 |
| 14 | danixxx | 17 | 2754 | 1718 | 1658 | 28193 |
| 15 | qdjseh001 | 59 | 2327 | 1493 | 1480 | 87369 |
| 16 | Mantra64 | 19 | 2131 | 1729 | 1557 | 29588 |
| 17 | lestion | 18 | 1908 | 1744 | 1567 | 28218 |
| 18 | Godde?? | 39 | 1816 | 1518 | 1512 | 59004 |
| 19 | .@_@.@_@. | 24 | 1638 | 1789 | 1473 | 35366 |
| 20 | DJNoni | 34 | 1497 | 1503 | 1493 | 50795 |
| 21 | StonyCat | 3 | 1465 | 2174 | 2161 | 6483 |
| 22 | Honeycat | 5 | 1447 | 2140 | 1862 | 9311 |
| 23 | Hina Amano | 186 | 1271 | 1440 | 1433 | 266694 |
| 24 | ddwiki | 4 | 1240 | 1984 | 1872 | 7490 |
| 25 | moanim | 14 | 1128 | 1562 | 1562 | 21870 |
| 26 | cylinnia | 27 | 1088 | 1500 | 1500 | 40501 |
| 27 | Void Domain | 5 | 1087 | 2241 | 1735 | 8677 |
| 28 | in memory | 21 | 1056 | 1497 | 1495 | 31407 |
| 29 | another planet | 2 | 1043 | 2250 | 2250 | 4500 |
| 30 | KINOSHITAMIKOTO | 5 | 1004 | 1971 | 1731 | 8658 |
| 31 | warachiasion | 3 | 994 | 1944 | 1899 | 5697 |
| 32 | Ichy | 3 | 930 | 2011 | 1877 | 5632 |
| 33 | Kira.Yoshikage | 22 | 869 | 1501 | 1501 | 33031 |
| 34 | EsotericSatire | 3 | 786 | 2088 | 1787 | 5363 |
| 35 | foobarwtf | 2 | 782 | 2081 | 2016 | 4033 |
| 36 | sabregimp | 12 | 766 | 1532 | 1531 | 18378 |
| 37 | treesloth | 7 | 760 | 1608 | 1564 | 10948 |
| 38 | ashimoto | 4 | 760 | 1777 | 1680 | 6722 |
| 39 | ???? | 7 | 758 | 1787 | 1567 | 10973 |
| 40 | 15112006 | 11 | 739 | 1541 | 1531 | 16848 |
| 41 | poi999poi | 18 | 711 | 1486 | 1478 | 26609 |
| 42 | HTTP/308 | 5 | 706 | 2076 | 1648 | 8240 |
| 43 | arialinnoc | 7 | 694 | 1947 | 1568 | 10979 |
| 44 | sehokila | 6 | 585 | 1574 | 1573 | 9440 |
| 45 | Loli Extremist | 2 | 554 | 1889 | 1786 | 3573 |
| 46 | biborobi | 1 | 545 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 |
| 47 | eliudnir | 1 | 535 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 |
| 48 | Thira | 1 | 533 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 |
| 49 | TheTornPrince | 1 | 531 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 |
| 50 | Dreamophobia | 1 | 519 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 |
| 51 | kamio11 | 2 | 511 | 2066 | 1818 | 3636 |
| 52 | atomicpuppy | 1 | 508 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 |
| 53 | SakiRaFubuKi | 1 | 504 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 |
| 54 | tibus1979 | 1 | 497 | 2250 | 2250 | 2250 |
| 55 | fihero | 1 | 486 | 2116 | 2116 | 2116 |
| 56 | Nekobenki | 3 | 465 | 1741 | 1653 | 4961 |
| 57 | kzh125 | 1 | 460 | 1953 | 1953 | 1953 |
| 58 | Alicia Florence | 6 | 459 | 1724 | 1450 | 8700 |
| 59 | hayate hisakawa | 3 | 435 | 1661 | 1627 | 4881 |
| 60 | ?? ?? | 3 | 423 | 1646 | 1634 | 4903 |
| 61 | J.L. | 2 | 420 | 1761 | 1722 | 3444 |
| 62 | Atypical | 5 | 404 | 1554 | 1543 | 7718 |
| 63 | Amiya | 1 | 404 | 1983 | 1983 | 1983 |
| 64 | Hentai Woody | 1 | 403 | 2003 | 2003 | 2003 |
| 65 | LittleSnowBoy | 1 | 402 | 2033 | 2033 | 2033 |
| 66 | blackjac00 | 42 | 398 | 1452 | 1451 | 60981 |
| 67 | Sky Arc | 4 | 362 | 1566 | 1552 | 6210 |
| 68 | lord of dao | 2 | 355 | 1812 | 1693 | 3386 |
| 69 | pontaqqq | 4 | 336 | 1560 | 1560 | 6240 |
| 70 | Ass Spanker | 4 | 324 | 1862 | 1462 | 5850 |
| 71 | The_Ellimist | 1 | 324 | 1869 | 1869 | 1869 |
| 72 | unitready | 1 | 315 | 1869 | 1869 | 1869 |
| 73 | ariosty | 3 | 304 | 1590 | 1590 | 4770 |
| 74 | Anemone | 1 | 301 | 1839 | 1839 | 1839 |
| 75 | ctaglack | 8 | 283 | 1600 | 1455 | 11640 |
| 76 | dkdk554 | 1 | 276 | 1839 | 1839 | 1839 |
| 77 | Maximum_Joe | 1 | 270 | 1797 | 1797 | 1797 |
| 78 | Lostwizard | 6 | 265 | 1503 | 1503 | 9018 |
| 79 | Holy Bunny | 2 | 249 | 1617 | 1616 | 3233 |
| 80 | mfs5vnut32 | 6 | 242 | 1500 | 1500 | 9000 |
| 81 | Null2Null | 2 | 231 | 1590 | 1590 | 3180 |
| 82 | e-Stark | 1 | 224 | 1728 | 1728 | 1728 |
| 83 | jantch | 5 | 221 | 1499 | 1497 | 7488 |
| 84 | Bane13 | 1 | 220 | 1716 | 1716 | 1716 |
| 85 | jackalo | 3 | 218 | 1554 | 1525 | 4575 |
| 86 | Asariborn | 2 | 211 | 1681 | 1566 | 3133 |
| 87 | sky15jam | 1 | 198 | 1703 | 1703 | 1703 |
| 88 | ????? | 2 | 187 | 1575 | 1560 | 3120 |
| 89 | ace_amuro | 1 | 187 | 1698 | 1698 | 1698 |
| 90 | Ckyc | 1 | 185 | 1712 | 1712 | 1712 |
| 91 | Shimaidon | 3 | 183 | 1538 | 1525 | 4577 |
| 92 | megaplayboy | 2 | 173 | 1546 | 1522 | 3045 |
| 93 | Sapo84 | 2 | 173 | 1616 | 1509 | 3019 |
| 94 | shinji-rei | 3 | 170 | 1627 | 1512 | 4538 |
| 95 | needaname | 2 | 168 | 1592 | 1571 | 3142 |
| 96 | Drksrpnt | 1 | 167 | 1638 | 1638 | 1638 |
| 97 | gamagaeru | 1 | 152 | 1650 | 1650 | 1650 |
| 98 | december08 | 1 | 149 | 1608 | 1608 | 1608 |
| 99 | damemo | 1 | 149 | 1608 | 1608 | 1608 |
| 100 | Lin Setsu A | 2 | 144 | 1560 | 1560 | 3120 |
| 101 | TurendoT | 4 | 140 | 1570 | 1470 | 5883 |
| 102 | piyin | 3 | 135 | 1515 | 1514 | 4543 |
| 103 | The Original Zeo | 3 | 132 | 1505 | 1505 | 4515 |
| 104 | goro50neco | 5 | 126 | 1499 | 1460 | 7304 |
| 105 | FAhentai | 4 | 125 | 1535 | 1463 | 5853 |
| 106 | minson | 1 | 125 | 1585 | 1585 | 1585 |
| 107 | ymy | 1 | 122 | 1604 | 1604 | 1604 |
| 108 | believego | 1 | 114 | 1590 | 1590 | 1590 |
| 109 | skywaterboy | 1 | 114 | 1590 | 1590 | 1590 |
| 110 | hellweekdays | 1 | 111 | 1600 | 1600 | 1600 |
| 111 | kaien123456 | 1 | 109 | 1590 | 1590 | 1590 |
| 112 | safmy | 3 | 107 | 1537 | 1482 | 4447 |
| 113 | SoraNoAki | 1 | 106 | 1560 | 1560 | 1560 |
| 114 | K.A. | 1 | 104 | 1583 | 1583 | 1583 |
| 115 | tazmanian devil | 1 | 96 | 1560 | 1560 | 1560 |
| 116 | Akitsuki Fuuka | 1 | 94 | 1590 | 1590 | 1590 |
| 117 | Forty two | 1 | 91 | 1590 | 1590 | 1590 |
| 118 | labiskvi | 1 | 91 | 1590 | 1590 | 1590 |
| 119 | Darwin4078 | 2 | 90 | 1515 | 1515 | 3030 |
| 120 | xyzjarod | 1 | 86 | 1565 | 1565 | 1565 |
| 121 | nta-008 | 2 | 85 | 1514 | 1493 | 2987 |
| 122 | Logii | 2 | 84 | 1525 | 1487 | 2975 |
| 123 | chronokorea | 1 | 83 | 1560 | 1560 | 1560 |
| 124 | kii9999 | 1 | 77 | 1560 | 1560 | 1560 |
| 125 | Ea-Moon | 1 | 74 | 1560 | 1560 | 1560 |
| 126 | ankwchi | 1 | 71 | 1560 | 1560 | 1560 |
| 127 | Kpop of Orz | 1 | 70 | 1530 | 1530 | 1530 |
| 128 | Charlotte1 | 1 | 69 | 1560 | 1560 | 1560 |
| 129 | telice | 1 | 68 | 1535 | 1535 | 1535 |
| 130 | chazer | 1 | 63 | 1530 | 1530 | 1530 |
| 131 | YellowHui2 | 2 | 61 | 1507 | 1505 | 3011 |
| 132 | tsukasagetsu | 1 | 61 | 1560 | 1560 | 1560 |
| 133 | Passerby4 | 1 | 58 | 1523 | 1523 | 1523 |
| 134 | Epion | 1 | 56 | 1505 | 1505 | 1505 |
| 135 | issary | 1 | 51 | 1202 | 1202 | 1202 |
| 136 | southrim | 1 | 50 | 1510 | 1510 | 1510 |
| 137 | kira0002 | 1 | 49 | 1535 | 1535 | 1535 |
| 138 | izer | 1 | 43 | 1469 | 1469 | 1469 |
| 139 | sneqt | 15 | 39 | 1379 | 1372 | 20589 |
| 140 | foxian | 1 | 36 | 1465 | 1465 | 1465 |
| 141 | s976113 | 4 | 35 | 1464 | 1389 | 5559 |
| 142 | maxsnowman | 27 | 33 | 1345 | 1339 | 36155 |
| 143 | ruesny | 1 | 25 | 1460 | 1460 | 1460 |
| 144 | SidZBear | 1 | 15 | 1455 | 1455 | 1455 |
| 145 | utsuge | 1 | 14 | 1455 | 1455 | 1455 |
| 146 | Doracra | 3 | 12 | 1434 | 1371 | 4113 |
| 147 | Doomdragon2 | 1 | 12 | 1455 | 1455 | 1455 |
| 148 | alfonx | 1 | 12 | 1455 | 1455 | 1455 |
| 149 | wodhuhh | 1 | 11 | 1455 | 1455 | 1455 |
| 150 | The Nameless Monster | 1 | 10 | 1413 | 1413 | 1413 |
| 151 | FullestDay | 1 | 10 | 1465 | 1465 | 1465 |
| 152 | Rikis | 1 | 9 | 1408 | 1408 | 1408 |
| 153 | Sonic | 1 | 7 | 1403 | 1403 | 1403 |
| 154 | TygerTyger | 1 | 6 | 1431 | 1431 | 1431 |
| 155 | Hybridie | 1 | 3 | 1431 | 1431 | 1431 |
| 156 | dorcus07 | 1 | 3 | 1431 | 1431 | 1431 |
| 157 | KamuiSeph | 1 | 2 | 1335 | 1335 | 1335 |
| 158 | kujinsi | 1 | 2 | 1395 | 1395 | 1395 |
| 159 | Selcouth | 1 | 2 | 1327 | 1327 | 1327 |
| 160 | imnotgay | 1 | 2 | 1353 | 1353 | 1353 |
| 161 | oblivion1989 | 1 | 2 | 1426 | 1426 | 1426 | |
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Dec 24 2019, 07:05
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Fudo Masamune
Group: Gold Star Club
Posts: 1,636
Joined: 2-February 10
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wait, you could meet PL 1202 at lvl 500? that's like on the margin of error from PL vs player lvl calculation. and it pop out more frequently than PL 1400? are there some huge difference on monster type pool that such low PL monsters got a chance to shows up more than other? |
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Dec 24 2019, 19:03
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Nezu
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 3,931
Joined: 29-January 12
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QUOTE(Fudo Masamune @ Dec 24 2019, 05:05) wait, you could meet PL 1202 at lvl 500? that's like on the margin of error from PL vs player lvl calculation. and it pop out more frequently than PL 1400? are there some huge difference on monster type pool that such low PL monsters got a chance to shows up more than other? That's most likely an outdated scan. This info is not 100% accurate - it relies on the monster database being up-to-date. This is beyond my ability to control without scanning every single monster for 20,000 rounds, which would be prohibitively long and tedious. The most interesting data is the very high-level player averages, which could possibly inform a ML upgrade strategy (though it'd be for appearance rate, not so much economically for gift rate vs investment), and for curiosity's sake, where we each place in the ranking for number of monsters & appearances or how many players even have a high-level monster in the database. |
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Dec 30 2019, 21:31
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sssss2
Group: Gold Star Club
Posts: 3,955
Joined: 11-April 14
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Monster Gift: Expected Income1) The ratio of normal materials-rares-bindings is the same regardless of PL. - Normal materials: 85%; Cloth 1: Leather 1: Metals 2: Wood 1 - Rares: 1% - Bindings: 14% 2) The ratio of low-mid-high grade materials depends on PL. - PL 25-499(?): Low-Grade, Mid-Grade materials - PL 500-749(?): Low-Grade, Mid-Grade, High-Grade materials - PL 750-1499(?): Mid-Grade, High-Grade materials - PL 1500-: High-Grade materials only I calculated the expected income of PL 1500+ monsters: It bases on the current prices. CODE
var prices = {
"Low-Grade Cloth": 50,
"Mid-Grade Cloth": 300,
"High-Grade Cloth": 12000,
"Low-Grade Leather": 50,
"Mid-Grade Leather": 75,
"High-Grade Leather": 100,
"Low-Grade Metals": 50,
"Mid-Grade Metals": 150,
"High-Grade Metals": 400,
"Low-Grade Wood": 50,
"Mid-Grade Wood": 300,
"High-Grade Wood": 4000,
"Crystallized Phazon": 190000,
"Shade Fragment": 3000,
"Repurposed Actuator": 55000,
"Defense Matrix Modulator": 3000,
"Binding of Slaughter": 90000,
"Binding of Balance": 1000,
"Binding of Isaac": 3000,
"Binding of Destruction": 55000,
"Binding of Focus": 500,
"Binding of Friendship": 500,
"Binding of Protection": 30000,
"Binding of Warding": 1000,
"Binding of the Fleet": 10000,
"Binding of the Barrier": 1000,
"Binding of the Nimble": 1000,
"Binding of Negation": 500,
"Binding of the Ox": 10000,
"Binding of the Raccoon": 10000,
"Binding of the Cheetah": 30000,
"Binding of the Turtle": 3000,
"Binding of the Fox": 15000,
"Binding of the Owl": 15000,
"Binding of Surtr": 500,
"Binding of Niflheim": 500,
"Binding of Mjolnir": 500,
"Binding of Freyr": 500,
"Binding of Heimdall": 500,
"Binding of Fenrir": 500,
"Binding of the Elementalist": 500,
"Binding of the Heaven-sent": 500,
"Binding of the Demon-fiend": 500,
"Binding of the Curse-weaver": 500,
"Binding of the Earth-walker": 500,
"Binding of Dampening": 1000,
"Binding of Stoneskin": 500,
"Binding of Deflection": 500,
"Binding of the Fire-eater": 500,
"Binding of the Frost-born": 500,
"Binding of the Thunder-child": 500,
"Binding of the Wind-waker": 500,
"Binding of the Thrice-blessed": 500,
"Binding of the Spirit-ward": 500,
};
function calc(low,mid,high) {
return [
{ratio:0.85*low,mats:["Low-Grade Cloth","Low-Grade Leather","Low-Grade Metals","Low-Grade Metals","Low-Grade Wood"]},
{ratio:0.85*mid,mats:["Mid-Grade Cloth","Mid-Grade Leather","Mid-Grade Metals","Mid-Grade Metals","Mid-Grade Wood"]},
{ratio:0.85*high,mats:["High-Grade Cloth","High-Grade Leather","High-Grade Metals","High-Grade Metals","High-Grade Wood"]},
{ratio:0.01,mats:["Crystallized Phazon","Shade Fragment","Repurposed Actuator","Defense Matrix Modulator"]},
{ratio:0.14,mats:Object.keys(prices).filter(e=>e.startsWith("Binding of"))}
].reduce(function(p,c){
return Math.round( p + c.ratio * c.mats.reduce((p,c)=>p+prices[c],0) / c.mats.length );
},0);
}
var expected = {};
expected["low50-mid50"] = calc(0.5, 0.5, 0);
expected["mid50-high50"] = calc(0, 0.5, 0.5);
expected["high100"] = calc(0, 0, 1);
console.log(expected);
- low 50% mid 50%: 1789 - mid 50% high 50%: 3205 - high 100%: 4558Umm, 4558 credits per gift... How long will it take to recover the cost? My Monster Lab gift log for 100 daysCODE
==============================================
pl | class | gift | count | avg
==============================================
2250 | | 9,092 | 14 | 649
----------------------------------------------
2250 | Celestial | 1,875 | 3 | 625
2250 | Daimon | 672 | 1 | 672
2250 | Dragonkin | 2,024 | 3 | 675
2250 | Elemental | 618 | 1 | 618
2250 | Giant | 1,990 | 3 | 663
2250 | Mechanoid | 1,913 | 3 | 638
==============================================
1500 | | 31,182 | 186 | 168
----------------------------------------------
1500 | Arthropod | 2,881 | 17 | 169
1500 | Avion | 2,894 | 17 | 170
1500 | Beast | 2,842 | 17 | 167
1500 | Celestial | 2,116 | 14 | 151
1500 | Dragonkin | 2,309 | 14 | 165
1500 | Elemental | 2,695 | 16 | 168
1500 | Giant | 2,177 | 14 | 156
1500 | Humanoid | 2,062 | 12 | 172
1500 | Mechanoid | 2,310 | 14 | 165
1500 | Reptilian | 2,985 | 17 | 176
1500 | Sprite | 2,930 | 17 | 172
1500 | Undead | 2,981 | 17 | 175
==============================================
PL 2250: gift factor 260% cost: 5200 packs * 20k/pack = 104m income per day: 6.49 * 4558c = 29581c Break-Even Day: 104m / 29581 = 3515 days; 9 years 8 months PL 1500: gift factor 230% cost: 500 packs * 20k/pack = 10m income per day: 1.68 * 4558c = 7657c Break-Even Day: 10m / 7657 = 1306 days; 3 years 7 months This post has been edited by sssss2: Dec 30 2019, 21:35
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Dec 31 2019, 16:31
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mundomuñeca
Group: Members
Posts: 4,221
Joined: 14-July 17
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QUOTE(sssss2 @ Dec 30 2019, 21:31)
Monster Gift: Expected Income
~ skip ~
[code]
PL 2250: gift factor 260%
cost: 5200 packs * 20k/pack = 104m
income per day: 6.49 * 4558c = 29581c
Break-Even Day: 104m / 29581 = 3515 days; 9 years 8 months
PL 1500: gift factor 230%
cost: 500 packs * 20k/pack = 10m
income per day: 1.68 * 4558c = 7657c
Break-Even Day: 10m / 7657 = 1306 days; 3 years 7 months
It seems you just put in the Xtals' cost to bring them to level, not the cost of feeding them ... that would make the break-even point even farther in the future (if your other estimates are correct). And before you tell me that you don't have to buy feed 'cause you drop enough, that just means you use it instead of selling it. Any ledger-maintaining clerk could tell you that a possible income becoming not possible because of the need to feed your monsters, is just the same as a direct cost; you must put it in too. Sorry (IMG:[ invalid] style_emoticons/default/sad.gif) Btw, most players here (and not just low levels) would be more interested in an estimate of break-even with only PL < 400 monsters (or even all PL < 250 !). Can you provide that too, please (IMG:[ invalid] style_emoticons/default/unsure.gif) |
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Dec 31 2019, 17:13
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Noni
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 13,135
Joined: 19-February 16
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1789c per gift, 1 gift per 3 days, that's
596.3c per day, or 212k per year. Cost to PL25 is, well, very low. So -> excellent payback time
PL400? Just for showing off.
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Jan 1 2020, 01:56
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Nezu
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 3,931
Joined: 29-January 12
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QUOTE(mundomuñeca @ Dec 31 2019, 14:31) Btw, most players here (and not just low levels) would be more interested in an estimate of break-even with only PL < 400 monsters (or even all PL < 250 !). Can you provide that too, please (IMG:[ invalid] style_emoticons/default/unsure.gif) He can't, because his entire monster lab is 1500+ now... (IMG:[ invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif) But that aside, my experience is that anything below 1300 has the same gift rate, and 500+ only brings it to mid-grade guaranteed which isn't really a huge bump in income. Actually, that's not even strictly true - I see slightly higher wins on my minimum level monsters than anything in the 500-ish range because 1) very new players come in fairly frequently for a few REs and never get stuck in, I guess, 2) the mid-level monster range is only around for a very narrow player level range on specific difficulties, and 3) players in that level range very, very quickly outlevel it. I keep everything at 25 til it's time to start pouring crystals into it til it's over 1500, personally. |
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Jan 1 2020, 10:06
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Noni
Group: Catgirl Camarilla
Posts: 13,135
Joined: 19-February 16
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QUOTE(lestion @ Jan 1 2020, 00:56) He can't, because his entire monster lab is 1500+ now... (IMG:[ invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif) But that aside, my experience is that anything below 1300 has the same gift rate, and 500+ only brings it to mid-grade guaranteed which isn't really a huge bump in income. Actually, that's not even strictly true - I see slightly higher wins on my minimum level monsters than anything in the 500-ish range because 1) very new players come in fairly frequently for a few REs and never get stuck in, I guess, 2) the mid-level monster range is only around for a very narrow player level range on specific difficulties, and 3) players in that level range very, very quickly outlevel it. I keep everything at 25 til it's time to start pouring crystals into it til it's over 1500, personally. Well, in my experience, lv25 get a very low absolute number of wins. Most gifts come from 3 days automated gift. Mid-level monsters will still do that. You lose very little. But you do gain something. At lv300, you can already upgrade the Scavenger to 6 or so, which increases the chance of double gift once every 3 days. Conclusion remains: all lv25 has the best ROI |
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