[X] My Assistant

Hi, guys. I'm looking to enhance my playstyle since starting the game. I've used DW since the very beginning but I find myself struggling at Lv 150 and above arenas especially when the rounds get drawn out. Not looking for the ultimate build or anything like that, neither am I rich enough for the equipment that would require. I'd prefer not to rely on battle items so a build that could clear fights fast and still sustain would be great. So, some questions.

1. Should I be changing to a style that is more suitable for late, endgame or is DW viable enough ?
2. Would it be advisable to purchase Ethereal weapons at my level ?
3. Are my stats distributed well enough for a melee class ?

DW lacks the defense to play easily at interesting difficulties past level 150 or so. If you want to ever have a shot at Nintendo/IWBTH/PF, your best choice would be to try 1h. (Look for a prefixed rapier with a useful suffix, and a shield with decent block.) DW, 2h, and Niten all become pretty bad past level 150-ish because they don't provide the defense that 1h does. (1h also has near-infinite Spirit Stance, which is great for dealing a high amount of constant damage without being forced to pay a lot of attention)

You have to rely on items, otherwise you'll run out of mana, spirit, and then health. Even if all it is means using a mana draught every 100 turns or something, it's better to do that than the alternative of only playing Normal or something.

Ethereal weapons are fine if you can find them, but they're not that important. All you should really care about is having a rapier with a prefix, any prefix.

Stats are fine, but you should assign free XP as soon as you get it. It doesn't do any good stockpiled.

Do the damage/accuracy/parry bonuses from overwhelming strike stack up to 5 times?

This post has been edited by FabulousCupcake: Jan 25 2016, 06:52

Do the damage/accuracy/parry bonuses from overwhelming strike stack up to 5 times?

My understanding is that only the parry does. The others are just on or off regardless of stacks.

I don't get it. "let's say the IW will never give a potency that has already been given in the previous 7 runs" is an unrealistic assumption that greatly skews the required resets downward. More than 99.7% of the time, there will be at least one repeat in the last 8 single-potency IW runs, and the fact that repeats can happen is detrimental to the number of resets required. I believe the formal name for this is the [en.wikipedia.org] Gambler's fallacy. IWing like this is always sampling with replacement - sampling without replacement (the model you're describing) doesn't fit the situation, and gives different results.

With replacement (how IW works):
Run # --- Chance of success this run --- Chance of this run being the first success (this success * previous run's chance of failure) --- Chance of this run being another failure
1 --- 1/8 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 7/8 = .875
2 --- 1/8 --- 7/64 = .109 --- 49/64 = .766
3 --- 1/8 --- 49/512 = .096 --- 343/512 = .670
4 --- 1/8 --- (7*7*7)/(8*8*8*8) = .084 --- (7*7*7*7)/(8*8*8*8) = .586
5 --- 1/8 --- (7^4)/(8^5) = .073 --- (7^5)/(8^5) = .513
6 --- 1/8 --- (7^5)/(8^6) = .064 --- (7^6)/(8^6) = .449
... (continues forever)

Mean shards required before getting first success: Approaches 7. From spreadsheet, assuming we've succeeded by 50, 6.92817.
It's true that the majority of the time you'll have succeeded after run 6, but the average - the mean - is 7 shards. If you haven't gotten it by run 6, you're not guaranteed to get it in the next couple runs - you've still got to successfully beat the 1/8 odds once, which may require another 8 runs or something. Long tail.

Without replacement (getting a potency means you'll never get and have to reset that potency again):
Run # --- Chance of success this run --- Chance of this run being the first success (this success * previous run's chance of failure) --- Chance of this run being another failure
1 --- 1/8 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 7/8 = .875
2 --- 1/7 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 6/8 = .75
3 --- 1/6 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 5/8 = .625
4 --- 1/5 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 4/8 = .5
5 --- 1/4 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 3/8 = .375
6 --- 1/3 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 2/8 = .25
7 --- 1/2 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 1/8 = .125
8 --- 100% --- 1/8 = .125 --- 0/8 = 0
end (no long tail)

Very different numbers. Much higher chance of success, but unrealistic. tl;dr it's not 12.5% chance each time being done by run 8, but 12.5%, 10.9%, 9.6%, 8.4%, 7.3%, 6.4%.... with a long tail.5 possible potencies: Chances of not having succeeded after 7th try: 21%.

And the shit part is 50%, 75% chance mod and max 3 potency. This makes me dont know how to calculate (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

And the shit part is 50%, 75% chance mod and max 3 potency. This makes me dont know how to calculate (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

Yeah, I thought about trying to figure out exact numbers for that but it was too hard (given my stat knowledge) to even consider. Only way for me is to "cheat", run simulations, and hope they come close to the average.

I don't get it. "let's say the IW will never give a potency that has already been given in the previous 7 runs" is an unrealistic assumption that greatly skews the required resets downward. More than 99.7% of the time, there will be at least one repeat in the last 8 single-potency IW runs, and the fact that repeats can happen is detrimental to the number of resets required. I believe the formal name for this is the [en.wikipedia.org] Gambler's fallacy. IWing like this is always sampling with replacement - sampling without replacement (the model you're describing) doesn't fit the situation, and gives different results.

With replacement (how IW works):
Run # --- Chance of success this run --- Chance of this run being the first success (this success * previous run's chance of failure) --- Chance of this run being another failure
1 --- 1/8 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 7/8 = .875
2 --- 1/8 --- 7/64 = .109 --- 49/64 = .766
3 --- 1/8 --- 49/512 = .096 --- 343/512 = .670
4 --- 1/8 --- (7*7*7)/(8*8*8*8) = .084 --- (7*7*7*7)/(8*8*8*8) = .586
5 --- 1/8 --- (7^4)/(8^5) = .073 --- (7^5)/(8^5) = .513
6 --- 1/8 --- (7^5)/(8^6) = .064 --- (7^6)/(8^6) = .449
... (continues forever)

Mean shards required before getting first success: Approaches 7. From spreadsheet, assuming we've succeeded by 50, 6.92817.
It's true that the majority of the time you'll have succeeded after run 6, but the average - the mean - is 7 shards. If you haven't gotten it by run 6, you're not guaranteed to get it in the next couple runs - you've still got to successfully beat the 1/8 odds once, which may require another 8 runs or something. Long tail.

Without replacement (getting a potency means you'll never get and have to reset that potency again):
Run # --- Chance of success this run --- Chance of this run being the first success (this success * previous run's chance of failure) --- Chance of this run being another failure
1 --- 1/8 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 7/8 = .875
2 --- 1/7 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 6/8 = .75
3 --- 1/6 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 5/8 = .625
4 --- 1/5 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 4/8 = .5
5 --- 1/4 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 3/8 = .375
6 --- 1/3 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 2/8 = .25
7 --- 1/2 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 1/8 = .125
8 --- 100% --- 1/8 = .125 --- 0/8 = 0
end (no long tail)

Very different numbers. Much higher chance of success, but unrealistic. tl;dr it's not 12.5% chance each time being done by run 8, but 12.5%, 10.9%, 9.6%, 8.4%, 7.3%, 6.4%.... with a long tail.5 possible potencies: Chances of not having succeeded after 7th try: 21%.I see no one asking for more than 17.1k. ISB price is not an accurate way to judge.

This statistics and probability talk is triggering*, please stop. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

*I got PTSD going through this in college but the doctors wouldn't diagnose it as such. Assholes.

I ran the iw simulator which based on my reforging strategy and conditions, including 'Dark Descent' hath perk.

- 18x amnesia shards are consumed for getting Jug 5 if the equip is not elemental-prefixed.
- 16x amnesia shards are consumed for getting Jug 5 if the equip is elemental-prefixed.

Why?
Its all about combinatorics. We can even simplify to 2 groups (good and bad result). If we wanna jug then overall 8 potency and 1 is needed. Remain 7 is bad result. Its 1/8 chance with 7 shards. For second jug in row its again 2 groups, but now its 50% chance. 1/8*1/2 = 1/16 and 7+8 shards. Same way for any other.

simulator op op I guess (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/anime_cry.gif)

DW lacks the defense to play easily at interesting difficulties past level 150 or so. If you want to ever have a shot at Nintendo/IWBTH/PF, your best choice would be to try 1h. (Look for a prefixed rapier with a useful suffix, and a shield with decent block.) DW, 2h, and Niten all become pretty bad past level 150-ish because they don't provide the defense that 1h does. (1h also has near-infinite Spirit Stance, which is great for dealing a high amount of constant damage without being forced to pay a lot of attention)

Decent rapiers that I have are http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=293f68f36a and http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=c4b766b49c. I assume Slaughter is a good enough suffix and would you recommend either of them?
Which shield should I pair with rapier though? Buckler, kite, force? Which prefix and suffix should I be aiming for? I use Light armor predominantly, is it necessary to switch to Heavy?

I think I want to go Archmage + Penetrator on my staff next. I think maybe the penetrator can replace the econ 3 I currently have.

Decent rapiers that I have are http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=293f68f36a and http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=c4b766b49c. I assume Slaughter is a good enough suffix and would you recommend either of them?
Which shield should I pair with rapier though? Buckler, kite, force? Which prefix and suffix should I be aiming for? I use Light armor predominantly, is it necessary to switch to Heavy?

No prefix is a dealbreaker, since it's some 20% less damage or something.

Shield can be anything as long as it has high block. (So avoid non-Barrier buckler) Prefix only matters on weapon, on shield and armor it's quite unimportant (until you get rich enough to buy Savage Power Slaughter). If you plan to forge shield block to 5 or 10 - which really really helps - then avoid Force, since DMMs cost way too much for someone with limited funds. If you use Kite, then also featherweight to keep your burden under 70 (if Heavy armor) or as low as possible (if Light armor).

Light armor is fine, it's probably the best choice until level 250 or so, at which point you have enough innate tankyness from level scaling that Power and Power Slaughter starts looking attractive in exchange for giving up some of the defense you get from Light. Don't feel pressured to change.

First thou shalt go to the WTB and thou shalt place thy order for goods there, and only there. Prevailing WTB prices are the offer that thou shalt make for thine requested goods and likewise WTB is where thou shall sell thine goods. At the WTS shalt thou not shop, neither goest thou to buy or shell at the Item Shop, except to hunt for certain artifacts foolishly dropped by other HV users. And the Item Shop Bot of course is right out.

did you just read Shakespeare? it has been a while since i last read terms like 'thou' and 'shalt'. probably back from high school (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/huh.gif)

Do the damage/accuracy/parry bonuses from overwhelming strike stack up to 5 times?

according to wiki, only counter-parry stacks so many times. all the other bonuses are simply flipped on/off

Yeah, I thought about trying to figure out exact numbers for that but it was too hard (given my stat knowledge) to even consider. Only way for me is to "cheat", run simulations, and hope they come close to the average.

if the number of runs is high enough, yep. shouldn't it better to ask a handful of IW-service runners to share their results? it seems to me the quickest way to reach the goal. furthermore, if you assume the game is not biased towards Jug, you can replace it with any other specific potency that was asked and the result will still be the same, isn't it?

This statistics and probability talk is triggering*, please stop. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

*I got PTSD going through this in college but the doctors wouldn't diagnose it as such. Assholes.

may some serious cleavage help you? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ph34r.gif)

I think I want to go Archmage + Penetrator on my staff next. I think maybe the penetrator can replace the econ 3 I currently have.

I can't see any reason to use economizer. Worst option imo. Unless you gets huge mana costs lategame, but I'm almost 350 lvl and I have zero problems with mana management.

if the number of runs is high enough, yep. shouldn't it better to ask a handful of IW-service runners to share their results? it seems to me the quickest way to reach the goal. furthermore, if you assume the game is not biased towards Jug, you can replace it with any other specific potency that was asked and the result will still be the same, isn't it?

I am one of those IW-service runners. But even so, the average gotten from any humanly possible IW series won't be trustworthy, even if someone IWd an equip to 10 every day for a year - the variance is just too high, even assuming someone would bother to record it. I remember running 100k simulations but there was still 37.12 +- 0.2 variation or so (shards for Jug 5, no prefix), which is astoundingly huge. My 1k simulations were too frequently off the mark.

Simulations are fine - they give mostly accurate information, better than what anyone could figure out from manual testing - it's just that simulations are giving you a likely answer rather than a true answer, so it doesn't feel right intellectually. To me.

I'm sure some with the right background could figure out something like this pretty quickly, but I'm not one of them.

No prefix is a dealbreaker, since it's some 20% less damage or something.

Shield can be anything as long as it has high block. (So avoid non-Barrier buckler) Prefix only matters on weapon, on shield and armor it's quite unimportant (until you get rich enough to buy Savage Power Slaughter). If you plan to forge shield block to 5 or 10 - which really really helps - then avoid Force, since DMMs cost way too much for someone with limited funds. If you use Kite, then also featherweight to keep your burden under 70 (if Heavy armor) or as low as possible (if Light armor).

Light armor is fine, it's probably the best choice until level 250 or so, at which point you have enough innate tankyness from level scaling that Power and Power Slaughter starts looking attractive in exchange for giving up some of the defense you get from Light. Don't feel pressured to change.

Well I might not have a prefixed rapier but I could purchase one. Didnt find much that were within my level range though.
http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=3c70e3c2ad 120K
http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=c5618bac2f 10K
http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=56665e2356 50K

Are any of these worth the price perhaps ?

Side note, is this good enough ? http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=6af7fd629c

Simulations are fine - they give mostly accurate information, better than what anyone could figure out from manual testing - it's just that simulations are giving you a likely answer rather than a true answer, so it doesn't feel right intellectually. To me.

obviously. but having a hint is still better than having nothing. afterall we're not interested in the answer of the question 'what's the exact number of shards needed for Jug?' since it's quite subjective, but rather in the answer of the question 'how many shards should i expect to unlock Jug?'. a whole different matter (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)

I'm sure some with the right background could figure out something like this pretty quickly, but I'm not one of them.

and to rubber salt in the wound all the datas gained before the IW patch are useless (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

Eco isnt very bad. Im buying mp pots for ~100k/week. Its not so small and with eco it actually might be even positive. Many dont like it only because its side profit instead clearspeed.

Well I might not have a prefixed rapier but I could purchase one. Didnt find much that were within my level range though.
http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=3c70e3c2ad 120K
http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=c5618bac2f 10K
http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=56665e2356 50K

Are any of these worth the price perhaps ?

maybe the Vampire, if bargained a bit. useless suffix, but decent stats. and its prefix will stack well with Fire Spike Shield, which is suggested for 1H
otherwise probably the Ethereal, if you have such funds

Side note, is this good enough ? http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=6af7fd629c

only to start

Well I might not have a prefixed rapier but I could purchase one. Didnt find much that were within my level range though.
http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=3c70e3c2ad 120K
http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=c5618bac2f 10K
http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=56665e2356 50K

Are any of these worth the price perhaps ?

Side note, is this good enough ? http://hentaiverse.org/pages/showequip.php...;key=6af7fd629c

Vampire's junk. I'd go for the Magnificent Ethereal Rapier of Balance.

Buckler looks very very old, despite being Barrier its block is horrendous (S-4.04). I think even average non-Barrier bucklers have higher block.