QUOTE(Sapo84 @ Jan 24 2016, 16:08)

No, that's not the average number of shards to get jug 1.
Let me explain.
Let's assume we have a mithril/savage armor (8 possible potencies), and let's say the IW will never give a potency that has already been given in the previous 7 runs (chance is always 12.5%).
What can happen is:
jug as 1st (0 shard)
jug as 2nd (1 shard)
jug as 3th (2 shards)
jug as 4th (3 shards)
jug as 5th(4 shards)
jug as 6th (5 shards)
jug as 7th (6 shards)
jug as 8th (7 shards)
Average is 3.5 shards.
IW does not have the rule about giving always a different potency from the previous 7 runs (you can have 20 IW and always get jug and 50 runs and never get one single jug), but it's pretty much impossible that the average is 7 shards.
Obviously it would be better if someone could bring in the correct math, but for now I will keep my 4 shards as a pretty good educated guess (because it's also close to my empirical observations).
I don't get it. "let's say the IW will never give a potency that has already been given in the previous 7 runs" is an unrealistic assumption that greatly skews the required resets downward. More than 99.7% of the time, there will be at least one repeat in the last 8 single-potency IW runs, and the fact that repeats can happen is detrimental to the number of resets required. I believe the formal name for this is the [
en.wikipedia.org]
Gambler's fallacy. IWing like this is always sampling
with replacement - sampling
without replacement (the model you're describing) doesn't fit the situation, and gives different results.
With replacement (how IW works):
Run # --- Chance of success this run --- Chance of this run being the first success (this success * previous run's chance of failure) --- Chance of this run being another failure
1 --- 1/8 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 7/8 = .875
2 --- 1/8 --- 7/64 = .109 --- 49/64 = .766
3 --- 1/8 --- 49/512 = .096 --- 343/512 = .670
4 --- 1/8 --- (7*7*7)/(8*8*8*8) = .084 --- (7*7*7*7)/(8*8*8*8) = .586
5 --- 1/8 --- (7^4)/(8^5) = .073 --- (7^5)/(8^5) = .513
6 --- 1/8 --- (7^5)/(8^6) = .064 --- (7^6)/(8^6) = .449
... (continues forever)
Mean shards required before getting first success: Approaches 7. From spreadsheet, assuming we've succeeded by 50, 6.92817.
It's true that the majority of the time you'll have succeeded after run 6, but the average - the mean - is 7 shards. If you haven't gotten it by run 6, you're not guaranteed to get it in the next couple runs - you've still got to successfully beat the 1/8 odds once, which may require another 8 runs or something. Long tail.
Without replacement (getting a potency means you'll never get and have to reset that potency again):
Run # --- Chance of success this run --- Chance of this run being the first success (this success * previous run's chance of failure) --- Chance of this run being another failure
1 --- 1/8 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 7/8 = .875
2 --- 1/7 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 6/8 = .75
3 --- 1/6 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 5/8 = .625
4 --- 1/5 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 4/8 = .5
5 --- 1/4 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 3/8 = .375
6 --- 1/3 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 2/8 = .25
7 --- 1/2 --- 1/8 = .125 --- 1/8 = .125
8 --- 100% --- 1/8 = .125 --- 0/8 = 0
end (no long tail)
Very different numbers. Much higher chance of success, but unrealistic. tl;dr it's not 12.5% chance each time being done by run 8, but 12.5%, 10.9%, 9.6%, 8.4%, 7.3%, 6.4%.... with a long tail.
QUOTE(cichy133 @ Jan 24 2016, 21:21)

Trying to get penetrator 1 on my freshly soulfused staff. Wasted 7 amnesia shards and now I have to buy more fucking shards. I got every possible option except penetrator ffs.
What are the odds really :<
5 possible potencies: Chances of not having succeeded after 7th try: 21%.
QUOTE(Fudo Masamune @ Jan 24 2016, 20:03)

Holy hell, precusor is now 27k? It was only 17-18 last week... what did I miss?
I see no one asking for more than 17.1k. ISB price is not an accurate way to judge.
This post has been edited by Superlatanium: Jan 25 2016, 01:59