QUOTE(nec1986 @ Sep 27 2015, 17:10)
...If we completely delete crystals and credits than its still [higher than previously calculated]. But some part of crystals should be included also...
Okay since the number is so different from my initial estimate, I redid the drops, including various item drops, and counting potion usage. It appears that the suspicion from nec1986's post has some merit: drop rates are double, and the rolls I calculated are proportionally larger.
Drop Rate and Roll Estimates 2.0:
Drop rate is: 10%*1.25 (Scavenger) +0-15% PL bonus, averaging around
27% (with the max being 27.5 for PL >1250, max Scavenger)
Equipment Roll is
2.5% base, with 20 Quartermaster it is
5%Artifact Roll is
0.2% base, with 10 Archaeologist it is
0.4%.
Token Roll is
0.2% base, with 1-4x depending on Tokeniser.
'Items' Roll is
either 60% normally, 53% in grindfest. Or I did something wrong (more likely).
If all rolls fail, then you get crystals.
Notes: The item roll was calculated with 1640 drops in 'normal' (item world), and ~2271 drops in grindfest. It is statistically significant that they are different (or I miscounted something like potions used, that being said, I must have missed 150 potions for it to be 60%).
Comparing Grindfest to IW, Grindfest gives twice as many crystal drops. Assuming that the 'item' rolls are different. There is a model which fits very well for the extra crystal drop:
With that assumption, extra crystal drop is calculated after normal rolls and credit rolls:
First Normal Drop Roll (~27% Chance)
Then Credit Roll if first fails (20% Chance)
Then Extra Crystal Roll if second fails (~10%-12.5% chance depending on scavenger, but with no pl bonus)
[
www.mediafire.com]
Excel containing values, note extremely messy, basically dirty raw data+ a bit of analysis
I'm gonna redo the grindfest to see if I can make the item roll number equal 60%.
As a bonus I think I found out how monsters spawn in grindfest/IW:
You get somewhere between Round/4 and Round/4+2 monsters (1-3 monsters at Round 1). After round 24 you always get between 7 and 9. There is a bias between picking the higher numbers, after round 24, you get ~8.3 monsters per round.
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Oct 4 2015, 11:40
