[X] My Assistant

Thanks for the event, and happy new year.

Many thanks for the extra fun of the end and beginning of the year. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

And thank you for the explanations (I was making confusion before (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif) ). I just hit because of similar reasoning (popularity of anime).

A happy 2017 for everyone!

thank you for fun event (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

Oh. I tried to figure out something that 3 charracters have and 1 hasn't.
Apparently I got it right anyway (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

I went with Saber for the popularity, but i didn't say it because it seemed too simple of an answer (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)
Shame on me.

My guess is 1

My guess is 1

what

Didn't think about it at all.
I don't know 2 of them and i don't like Saber. Plus i have a fetish for neckties.
So on behalf of a SINGLE DIGIT in the Raider's official fan club, i'd rather lose than support Saber. Worth... ... ... or not (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

I just want to thank Super for this event.
It was fun (and in my case, quite profitable (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif) ).

Happy New Year to everyone!

I went with Saber for the popularity, but i didn't say it because it seemed too simple of an answer (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)
Shame on me.

+1
I thought we were supposed to develop some kind of mathematical model to show the different probabilities of each character getting picked or something like that. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

Congratz to all winners and thank you for making this event.

I didn't even thought about the famous or less famous.
It may be a particular coincidence, but the anime of the "more popular" of the four is the only one I didn't watch yet (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)


Anyway, In reality, there is no predetermined winner. It's only more plausible that people will pick a more popular character.

Giving that aspect before the game would have made people divide almost equally between armies, and rng would have decided the winner.

This post has been edited by End Of All Hope: Jan 4 2017, 01:41

I think from the start, it could have been concluded that:

• Saber is overwhelmingly the most popular character
• Many players will simply choose the character they're most familiar with (0-level reasoning)
• Some smart players will choose what they think is going to be the most popular character (1-level reasoning)
• Anyone who tries to reason on a higher level will probably realize that almost everyone will be in those first two groups, and will therefore pick Saber as well

It was pretty predetermined; I intentionally made it something that was likely solvable. If the characters had been closer to each other in terms of popularity, it would've been a different story, but the characters were conscientiously picked with that in mind. I prefer rewarding smart reasoning over rewarding luck (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

(this is why the "bonus" reward was actually the primary reward, the "Saber Supporter" reward was less than half of the "Explanation Bonus" - though I don't know if anyone had considered that before the end)

You can also look at the relation between galleries and supporters, which I only noticed afterwards:
Akatsuki: 40 / 4
Kurisu: 210 / 7
Saber: 1279 / 34
Ange: 25 / 3

The correlation is surprisingly strong.

Yes, but.

The other game makes a perfect example.
The best way to win is agreeing with everyone and play all 0, so everyone wins.
But you needed to add a rule to make the people go close to 0, and still not everyone won, because they did not all vote 0.
And there were trolls as well, that bid big numbers to alter the average.

In the same way, agreements between the players can indeed make people win.
Either:
#1- everybody agrees on a character, even if it's non popular -> everyone wins
#2- "troll mode", a player pms a big chunk of players (> 50%) and agrees to play a different character knowing the others will play the popular one, in fact winning like the #1, but sharing the prize with less people, winning more

This post has been edited by End Of All Hope: Jan 4 2017, 02:50

Umineko was pretty popular 6-7 years ago, so Beato or Erika might have had a chance back then, I think. Meanwhile Ange was never really popular. LH is kinda niche and S;G, while big, is not even close to Fate. Without even checking the galleries I expected Saber >> Kurisu >> Akatsuki > Ange and it turned out exactly this way. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

+1
I thought we were supposed to develop some kind of mathematical model to show the different probabilities of each character getting picked or something like that. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

I also thought that there was some catch but decided to state the obvious anyway.