[X] My Assistant

I'm pretty sure it's lower, but i'm shit at this so what do i know (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

PS: Still, e and pi have nice digits (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

1.618 then. or 1.414. 1.732. pick one.

1.618 then. or 1.414. 1.732. pick one.

I'll pick the square root of 3 then, Trifase for the win (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

I'll pick the square root of 3 then, Trifase for the win (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

trifase has been a great conquer for all humanity, yep.

Game 6 Results

Total valid guesses: 33
Average valid guess: 2.16963545
Total excluded guesses: 6
Number of bonus guesses: 7
Total pot: 1070k

2/3 of Average Guess: 1.44642363

Winner 1: Fatesifaeve, with a guess of 1.4796
Winner 2: cmc1985, with a guess of 1.5
Winner 3: Lin Setsu A, with a guess of 1.3785
Winner 4: issary, with a guess of 1.6

---

Excluded list - guesses higher than 5 were ~50% lower than the previous winner (9.65), when in the last game, the winning number was less than 19% of the previous winner. (and the difference between winning numbers is only likely to widen) If you didn't see the trend, I didn't include your numbers in the average.

CODE

SStwins     58
hotdogls321     0.002
danyun     5.79
Roy_HBK     513
gynew     5.1115
djackallstar     5.36398

Valid guesses

CODE

4    
3.14159    
4.3    
1.4796    
1.7    IshimaruShun
1.65    Epion
1.3785    Lin Setsu A
2.55    zero1018101
1    hentai_fusion
3.14159    iron_chromie
1.6    issary
1.98    Innocent_Preach
1.8    mapokl
1.5    cmc1985
1.7    oddaicky
1.95    gianfrix94
3.33333    c4f12345
1.62    ginjok
1    Killer Bee1
4    Killer Bee1
0.27183    Phreeman
0.66741    Phreeman
2.15353    DCFulano
1.79461    DCFulano
2.54    Kiriman1
2    Kiriman1
2.95    Paarfi
1.97    Paarfi
2.51    Basara Nekki
2.17    Basara Nekki
2.42    cmos
1.75    cmos
3.57598    djackallstar

This post has been edited by Superlatanium: Jan 3 2017, 03:38

so low. woah!

At least I was right that the guess count dropped by half.

Huh, I thought the number game had ended at game 5 (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)

Here's the interesting trend I saw:
Game 1 to Game 2: New winning number is 0.9 * old winning number (it probably should have gone down more, but trolls)
Game 2 to Game 3: 0.575
Game 3 to Game 4: 0.366
Game 4 to Game 5: 0.189
Game 5 to Game 6: 0.150

so low. woah!

Pretty predictable if you did the math, even without knowing the first thing about trying to out-think the other guessers (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

Honestly, if I had made an honest guess at the beginning of Game 6, I would have expected a drop to aa factor of 0.10-0.14 or so. I'm a bit surprised at how high this winner was.

Honestly, if I had made an honest guess at the beginning of Game 6, I would have expected a drop to aa factor of 0.10-0.14 or so. I'm a bit surprised at how high this winner was.

And from this you can understand that we are shitty at number games, lol (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

Game 6 Results
Average valid guess: 2.16963545
Valid guesses

CODE

2.17    Basara Nekki

Ha, ha, I got the average! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

Ha, ha, I got the average! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

You forgot to divide by 1.5 (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

And I forgot to send a guess, whatever, I was sending 1. Losing (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)


Anyway, I'm either too tired or I lack some observation skills so I'm struggling searching for something that should make me pick one girl besides another...so I'll just throw a guess, 25% chance, yay! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/happy.gif)

Bump. Last chance to pick a character (and possibly win 150k+), minutes left!

Character competition end! Talking is fine now of course, I'm typing up my post

This post has been edited by Superlatanium: Jan 3 2017, 08:03

inb4 Kurisu wins because it's the choice of Steins Gate

48 users participated in the character competition!

Sorry for not allowing you guys to talk about it or to prop up your favorite girl, I wanted to make sure that posts in the thread didn't [en.wikipedia.org] influence people's choices. (and discussing how it works before the end would have defeated the purpose of the explanation reward)

If you haven't figured it out already, this character competition was very similar to the guessing games. The right question to ask is: Which character are most people going to choose? Which character is the most popular? This was related to my first hint, a reference to Kiriman1's post: this was a [en.wikipedia.org] Keynesian beauty contest. My second hint was a reference to the fact that one place nearby where you could judge the relative popularity of each character was the galleries:

I Support: Saber
Presumably a larger army (from more supporters) has a higher chance of winning.
So try to choose the one that most people believe most other people will choose.
In this site’s galleries at least, Saber is tagged the most (over 6 times the next highest, Akatsuki Kurisu Makise), so is the most well known/common.
Akatsuki - 40
Kurisu Makise - 210
Saber - 1279
Ange Ushiromiya - 25

These were the results:

Akatsuki, 4 supporters (12 fighters)

Kurisu, 7 supporters (21 fighters)

Saber, 34 supporters (102 fighters)

Ange, 3 supporters (9 fighters)

#89, Ange's fighter (supporter: Paarfi), defeats #45, Saber's fighter (supporter: Phreeman)
...
[reasoningtheory.net] (A bunch of simulated coin-flips later) Saber wins with 62 fighters remaining
(Saber wins in over 9999/10000 simulations; it's a type of [onlinestatbook.com] binomial distribution. Simulation code [reasoningtheory.net] here if anyone cares.)

For the bonus, all you had to do was mention that Saber is the most popular character (which she was by far), and will likely get the most votes or fighters. It was a very easy 150k, but only 9 people said so! (Sorry to those who don't understand English well)

(IMG:[reasoningtheory.net] http://reasoningtheory.net/saber.jpg)

Congrats to all of the 33 Saber supporters, as well as the bonus winners:

Bonus Winners:
Phreeman
Innocent_Preach
hotdogls321
Kiriman1
cmos
oddaicky
Basara Nekki
djackallstar
Fatesifaeve

Saber Supporters:
Superlatanium
IshimaruShun
SStwins
pablo903
skedw235
Hitori8050
c4f12345
zero1018101
hentai_fusion
iron_chromie
Phreeman
Innocent_Preach
hotdogls321
TiandeDT
danyun
ankwchi
Roy_HBK
Kiriman1
piyin
cmc1985
sdqwtwe
cmos
gianfrix94
gynew
ok1995
Basara Nekki
Drakewyn
End Of All Hope
oddaicky
free4all
thorfinn0709
djackallstar
Fatesifaeve
lovehcomics



It was fun, thanks to everyone who participated in the guessing games and the character competition!
This is the end of my event, happy holidays and happy new year to everyone!

This post has been edited by Superlatanium: Jan 3 2017, 12:22

Thanks I was lucky and happy new year (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

Thanks for the games and happy New Year.

happy new year!

Thanks for interesting game! 😘
And Happy New Year! 🎍

Thank you~~= )