[X] My Assistant

The only difference is the winner isn't same guy over and over again. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)

And what's the problem with the fact that they're going to put in more resources?

If you want a "fair" lottery, nothing is stopping you from arranging one.

Fair + lottery = implosion?

(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

If you want a "fair" lottery, nothing is stopping you from arranging one.

Besides a lack of resources and credibility with the entire userbase, sure.

If you want a "fair" lottery, nothing is stopping you from arranging one.

https://forums.e-hentai.org/index.php?showtopic=106130

It was closed though. :(

Besides a lack of resources and credibility with the entire userbase, sure.

Credibility? Everyone and their dog seem to think that the *official* lottery is rigged, so what difference would it make?

https://forums.e-hentai.org/index.php?showtopic=106130

It was closed though. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/sad.gif)

Well, it's not actually fair since only the 20 people can enter.

Proposed rule change:

-3 prize money of 50%, 30% and 20% of pot
-1000 credits per ticket.
-random numbers from random.org instead of having to depend on a mod.
-credits paid by mooglemail, with post number stated on mail. Who uses credit transfer anyway?

I would enter everyday if there was such a lotto since it's cheap and despite only 1 ticket, my chances look pretty real, at least more realistic than if I were to buy 1 lottery ticket.

Well, it's not actually fair since only the 20 people can enter.

That was only made for "start limit". I couldn't wait participants forever.
Alternatively, we could set some registering timer.

-random numbers from random.org instead of having to depend on a mod.

Someone will definitely say that I picked up my friend as a winner. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

While it is sometimes a bit disheartening to see the same five or six people win over and over and over and over again, something that would go a long way to making players feel better about the lottery would be a script that shows how many tickets the various winners (or top 10-20 ticket buyers) bought for that drawing.

I go for 5 tickets most days, including the day I won. At first I thought Ten had switched over to showing actually Gp in the Gp sales section rather than KGp. All but 1,000 KGp have been liquidated, netting me about 3.6M Credits. I spent some to get LoTD 21 and the remainder will buy either LoTD 22 or just enough Hath to get me the rest of the way to Innate Arcana 4... I haven't decided yet.

As things stand, I am actually about as happy with getting the 3rd place prize from the 12/07 drawing than if I had actually won the weapon since I still insist on playing a Holy/Dark mage. Of course for the conspiracy theorists Ten might be suddenly giving out a few of the other spots to unknowns in a sudden play to deflect accusations of rigging [/tinfoil_hat].

Credibility? Everyone and their dog seem to think that the *official* lottery is rigged, so what difference would it make?

I make one.

Everyone send your Credits to me and one day someone may get a price!

While it is sometimes a bit disheartening to see the same five or six people win over and over and over and over again, something that would go a long way to making players feel better about the lottery would be a script that shows how many tickets the various winners (or top 10-20 ticket buyers) bought for that drawing.

Well, I can tell you that those who regularly place buy a lot. For that hallowed katalox of heimdal recently, I believe the winner bought something like 90000 tickets.

Of course for the conspiracy theorists Ten might be suddenly giving out a few of the other spots to unknowns in a sudden play to deflect accusations of rigging [/tinfoil_hat].

Can I sign up to be one of these unknowns?

Not that I care about this that much, but I wiki'ed 'Lottery' just for kicks— this paragraph caught my eye, notably because of how I felt it to be the exact opposite of the people's attitude toward HV lottery:

The purchase of lottery tickets cannot be accounted for by decision models based on expected value maximization. The reason is that lottery tickets cost more than the expected gain, so one maximizing expected value should not buy lottery tickets. Yet, lottery purchases can be explained by decision models based on expected utility maximization, as the curvature of the utility function can be adjusted to capture risk-seeking behavior. More general models based on utility functions defined on things other than the lottery outcomes can also account for lottery purchase. In addition to the lottery prizes, the ticket may enable some purchasers to experience a thrill and to indulge in a fantasy of becoming wealthy. If the entertainment value (or other non-monetary value) obtained by playing is high enough for a given individual, then the purchase of a lottery ticket could represent a gain in overall utility. In such a case, the disutility of a monetary loss could be outweighed by the combined expected utility of monetary and non-monetary gain, thus making the purchase a rational decision for that individual.

This post has been edited by buktore: Dec 9 2013, 01:38

I believe the winner bought something like 90000 tickets.

So they paid ~12.5m credits for a staff (which may or may not be that valuable) but only paid 12% of all the tickets (meaning the 15% and 20% prizes would have been pure profit).

Problem: A player with enough starting bankroll can perpetually profit from winning and buy in to EVERY lottery, making gains in the long run.

Rather than punishing frequent winners there is an alternative path.

Solution: Prizes need to NOT be currency or convertible to currency. An example would be a collectable that cannot be sold or traded but which is still desired by the rich and poor players alike.

It's your illusion that this lottery can make the poor richer overnight.
I think its major function is gp recycling, that mains more tickets from the rich.

Maximum_Joe: No, math doesn't work like that. They paid ~12.5m credits for 12% chance for win a staff, or about 100m for 100%. Which isn't that small, btw - iirc Stonycat was mentioned to have put in 160k tickets for something, I think the Peerless redwood?

If you assume ~same payments for other people in lottery, you end up looking at roughly 40% loss or so?

Yes, they can win other prices if they don't win the first one - but that applies only if the winner for slots 1/1-2/1-3/1-4 had bought over 50%/70%/85%/95% tickets - the first of which only has that same profit margin of chance happening, assuming that it isn't multiple people all pitching in their chance. And profit per win % is worsened per every ticket bought. This would only probably happen once the GP-sink has been up longer and/or the item in question is considered fairly worthless overall(a mace perhaps), in which case there isn't much GP to be won anyway. Thus, nope the scenario you described is not possible.

This post has been edited by Lement: Dec 9 2013, 05:42

I'm just going to throw my 2 cents into this.

The lottery is currently set up so that only 5 out of up to possibly thousands of users could win. I have some suggestions to make it more... exciting.

Grand Prize: Keep as is.
2nd prize: 10% of the final pot given to 3 2nd prize winners each.
3rd prize: 1% of the final pot given to 20 3nd prize winners each.
4th prize: 1 pony figuring given to 50 4th prize winners.
5th prize: 1 artifact given to 200 5th prize winners.

more winners = less whiners
+1 for Anomtai, break the prizes up into smaller ones

In addition to the lottery prizes, the ticket may enable some purchasers to experience a thrill and to indulge in a fantasy of becoming wealthy.

this is me everyday (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cry.gif)

I have the best idea to promote a true GP sink and to quash all this debate about win% versus profit chance, or whatever: Get rid of the GP prizes.

more winners = less whiners

no winners = no whiners (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)