LONG MAGE DISCUSSIONQUOTE(morineko @ Mar 16 2017, 07:29)

But it's a problem to estimate the new imperil cast turns. (IMG:[
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style_emoticons/default/huh.gif)
If I had to guess I would say -100 turns or something like that (since the resist would be reduced by less than 3% it's around that value).
Probably not enough to justify the huge damage loss, which is worth more than that.
Anyway, I created a persona with huge amount of divine prof, little damage and no CR on staff.
Tested on IWBTH and PFUDOR.
The result are:
IWBTH

CODE
1680 no resist
385 single resist
34 double resist
6297 total rolls
453 resisted
7,19 % avg resist
14.38% monster average resist (CR 50%)
PFUDOR

CODE
1645 no resist
618 single resist
76 double resist
4 triple resist
7029 total rolls
782 resisted
11.1% avg resist
22.2% monster average resist (CR 50%)
First consideration:
14.38% + 10% != 22.2%
Even if we take in account variation it seems too much.
Possible solution: 14.18% + (1-0.1418) * 10 = 22.72%
Much better.
Second consideration: results seems higher than morineko's.
Let's check another
result.
CODE
Total rolls: 6141
Resisted rolls: 313
avg resist: 5.1% (75.59%CR)
monster average resist: 21%
If I remember correctly long arenas/grindfest have lower average PL, so this could explain the different results.
Since I only have pen3 on my staff I also tried to calculate how much would the damage change between pen5 and pen3 @PFUDOR.
I assumed monster average resist as 19.8% (from my tests it's probably more but when I did the math I only had morineko's imperil results)
CODE
75.58% CR
4.83516% avg resist (19.8 * 1-CR)
chance of 1 resist
resist * (1- resist) * (1-resist) * 3
4.3788885659194332096 * 3 =
13.137%
chance of 2 resist
(1-resist) * resist * resist X 3
0.675%
chance of 3 resist
* resist * resist * resist
0.011%
total damage =
(100*86.178 + 50* 13.137 + 25*0.675 + 10*0.011) / 100
92.916% of damage
83,58% CR
3.25116% avg resist
chance of 1 resist
3.0431956626501160896 * 3 =
9.13%
chance of 2 resist
0.307%
chance of 3 resist
0.003%
total damage =
(100*90.56 + 50*9.13 + 25*0.307 + 10*0.003) / 100
95.202% of damage
Damage difference = (95.202 - 92.916)% = 2.286% damage
Conclusion: I fucked up the IW.