[X] My Assistant

I would much rather get a new armor I could IW from scratch with my current suboptimal armor than figure it out some other way.

P.S. I would trade the 500 chaos tokens I just won for a second PTWD.

Well this is another good reason we didn't merge the Research ideas from Ask the Experts thread with Ponyverse. It helps to separate out the joke or semi-serious replies which would confuse a person asking questions. Some decent points were made though. ;)

This post has been edited by BlueWaterSplash: Nov 2 2019, 00:48

What is script?
Baby don't hurt me,
don't hurt me,
no more
(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

What is script?
Baby don't hurt me,
don't hurt me,
no more
(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

you stole my thought!

Well this is another good reason we didn't merge the Research ideas from Ask the Experts thread with Ponyverse. It helps to separate out the joke or semi-serious replies which would confuse a person asking questions. Some decent points were made though. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

yep. research is serious business.

I am advancing in my quest to become completely a Dual wielding warrior fully equipped with legendary equipment of shade, the bad thing is that I want to have a totally Arcanists set, and one of the pieces that I obtained today is not ...

But hey, it doesn't bother me so much, since I'm not at the level yet to be buying equipment to my liking, what I get is good. Now I just need to get legendary grade boots, armor and leegins from shade.

Well, I guess everyone has a superior version of the helmet so no one entered the pot really this time.

Back then I seriously fought for it.




As always I didn't win any of the big pots whenever I put all in and this is what the system decided to give me as consolation (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

Here you go, perfectly IWed, Jug5+Holy5, minimally forged. Almost ran out of shards. And yes, I IWed it with my old helmet. It'll stay on my sig as a protest. We, poor players, want to fight against the unfairness of the lotto system (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

To those that wanted it, this is the best I can do.

My old helmet that WaterSplash spit on:
https://hentaiverse.org/equip/187466062/a96c37fe90

My new helmet that is out of fashion:
https://hentaiverse.org/equip/211469004/12a9869b2f


Btw, I'm still waiting for a gift from Ikki pop. Tell me what the prize wasssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!

I will never again mediate a trade. This is so much work and it is so frustating. Well, i guess it was my own fault because i actually dared to think to could make a little profit out of this. Me and profit? I should have know how this would end. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cry.gif)

I posted this on Discord, but I thought others might be interested here.

Last night Frotag released some json files with the source data that some of his Discord bot functions use (specifically, scrapes for all past lotteries, auctions and... something else, think it's cached item ranges for the auction data).

Anyway, I just finished iterating over the lottery data out of curiosity, so here are the top 30 all-time lottery winners in each category: the amount of times they've won each prize type, the amount of those prizes they've won in total (for example, how many chaos tokens have they obtained via the lottery?) and the total wins.

Draws are ordered by whoever had the most recent win in that category, because I didn't think about ordering draws in any particular way and that's just how the data was fed to the script. lol

Wide image, so I've attached it rather than embedded.



This post has been edited by lestion: Nov 3 2019, 12:32

Most people on that list should probably be considered rich (not being on it doesn't mean you are poor). I haven't even entered a single lottery (though I tried to enter twice) and I don't consider myself poor.

As for the cost of entering, for low to medium quality items such as this past helmet it won't always be determined by the value of the gear, but simply a random result of high level players trying to get chaos tokens, supposedly (according to Uncle Stu).

I don't even have a single level of Juggernaut on my only soulfused armor piece.

As for the cost of entering, for low to medium quality items such as this past helmet it won't always be determined by the value of the gear, but simply a random result of high level players trying to get chaos tokens, supposedly (according to Uncle Stu).

There is "do not want" button, so mostly this is not true

Wow, I didn't think I'd rank that high. On the other hand, I think I've entered nearly every lottery since they were created. You eventually get lucky.

Do you know whether this includes the older lotteries that had different prizes (back when they gave GP back, etc.)?

Wow, I didn't think I'd rank that high. On the other hand, I think I've entered nearly every lottery since they were created. You eventually get lucky.

Do you know whether this includes the older lotteries that had different prizes (back when they gave GP back, etc.)?

This starts from lottery #1 (one of the test ones!) - back when there were still legendaries as rewards - but 1) the dates are only given as month & day, no year value and 2) the prize readout shows caffeinated candies and chaos tokens in both 4th and 5th place all the way back to the start - suggesting it's been retroactively changed, and therefore no way to get a completely accurate readout for things like Chaos Token totals.

The things that are DEFINITELY accurate in that table are: total wins, GLT (2nd place) wins, Candy (3rd place) wins. Token wins are 4th and 5th place combined essentially. I could do a different breakdown of it showing how many wins were gotten in each place, but it wouldn't give much more interesting data unless I could get some exact dates when the prizes changed, and accurate info about what the prizes used to be... so the most interesting column is really just the 'total wins'.

tl;dr lottery data comes directly from lottery pages which have been changed retroactively, therefore only the total wins column is reliable (sorry, didn't realise this until just now!)

This starts from lottery #1 (one of the test ones!) - back when there were still legendaries as rewards - but 1) the dates are only given as month & day, no year value and 2) the prize readout shows caffeinated candies and chaos tokens in both 4th and 5th place all the way back to the start - suggesting it's been retroactively changed, and therefore no way to get a completely accurate readout for things like Chaos Token totals.

The things that are DEFINITELY accurate in that table are: total wins, GLT (2nd place) wins, Candy (3rd place) wins. Token wins are 4th and 5th place combined essentially. I could do a different breakdown of it showing how many wins were gotten in each place, but it wouldn't give much more interesting data unless I could get some exact dates when the prizes changed, and accurate info about what the prizes used to be... so the most interesting column is really just the 'total wins'.

tl;dr lottery data comes directly from lottery pages which have been changed retroactively, therefore only the total wins column is reliable (sorry, didn't realise this until just now!)

There was even a time you could get magnificents as prizes. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

The lottery originally was just the weapon lottery (no armor). The second/third/fourth/fifth place prizes were 20/15/10/5% of the total GP in the lottery. That was added in the 0.77 update. The 0.78 update made equipment always be legendary or peerless.

0.79 added the armor lotto, Golden Lottery Tickets for second place, precursor artifacts for third place, chaos tokens for fourth, and blood tokens for fifth.

0.82 changed the precursor artifacts to soul fragments and changed the amount of GLTs and chaos tokens awarded (and retroactively changed the amount displayed for older lottos). 0.83 rescaled things again.

0.85 replaced soul fragments with candies, and blood tokens with chaos tokens and let you opt out of the equipment prize. And that's where we are today.

So you should be able to get the dates for which things changed (within one day, based on the HV update time), but total counts for GLTs may be off, same for candies if you don't limit when you start counting them.

Total and equipment wins should all be accurate though.

I would need info on the ratio of prizes to ticket count for all old prizes to be able to fix the data.

Also - yes, I can see the magnificent equipment prizes in the data! Like I say, it goes back to the very first lotteries. For the weapon lottery this was a Legendary Katalox Staff of Destruction, no prefix, won by Dreamophobia, on Sept 14th 2013.

For the armor lottery this was a Peerless Amber Phase Gloves of Heimdall on March 30th 2014, where Tenboro won with only 1 ticket, presumably as a test before putting it live.

But yes - total and equipment wins are accurate in the current data, so those lines in the table can be trusted.

Well, as a start, the GP prizes are easy, since the past lotto pages still display the total number of tickets. It's 1000 GP per ticket. So you can just compute the prizes from that.

I think you could work backward from the current award numbers and the update notes to get accurate numbers for the chaos tokens and GLTs. For the others, perhaps someone else will have a better memory than I.

And yeah, it's easy to browse the past prizes just by editing the URL. For example, I won a worthless longsword in the 1000th weapon lottery.

I will never again mediate a trade. This is so much work and it is so frustating. Well, i guess it was my own fault because i actually dared to think to could make a little profit out of this. Me and profit? I should have know how this would end. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cry.gif)

(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/huh.gif) When you want to be a mediator for profit, you should say so right at the start.

Getting along with people is mainly about avoiding misunderstanding from the very first minutes (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

Besides, rich almost-catgrrl should make charity, not hunger for profit; it is your social duty (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

Well this is another good reason we didn't merge the Research ideas from Ask the Experts thread with Ponyverse. It helps to separate out the joke or semi-serious replies which would confuse a person asking questions. Some decent points were made though. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

Ahh yes, the pot calling the kettle black (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

Yup I'd often go off on a tangent with overly serious/detailed replies in Ask the Experts that are eventually not answering a question, so that was another good reason to make a new thread for that kind of stuff.

There is "do not want" button, so mostly this is not true

Even if you choose "do not want" you increase the size of the betting pool, so I believe it's still true. I'm not sure on all the details of how ticketing and prize selection works.

But on that subject, should mouisaac have bid 18000 out of 70000 tickets on the first helmet? Aren't his chances supposedly capped at 10% of the betting pool, so he should have bid 7000 tickets? I can see why he bid on the second helmet now; it's hard to resist that kind of temptation when it's 10 times cheaper. Also since he collects peerless, if you have two copies you can wear one and see the other in your equipment list.

His comment about spitting reminds me that in one of the Blue Water Splash comics there was a swimsuit girl who enjoyed going into the school water tank to pollute the water supply. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

But on that subject, should mouisaac have bid 18000 out of 70000 tickets on the first helmet? Aren't his chances supposedly capped at 10% of the betting pool, so he should have bid 7000 tickets? I can see why he bid on the second helmet now; it's hard to resist that kind of temptation when it's 10 times cheaper. Also since he collects peerless, if you have two copies you can wear one and see the other in your equipment list.

No, chances are not capped at 10%. The doubling effect of the Golden Lottery Ticket is capped at 10% of the pool.

The wiki description isn't clear and the in-game description seems better: In addition to normal tickets, you can also spend a Golden Lottery Ticket to add 100 tickets and double your effective ticket count at the time of drawing. This will not increase the effective ticket count past 10% of the total purchased tickets.

I assumed that meant your total effective ticket count can never exceed 10%. If it can't exceed 10% with a Golden Lottery Ticket, why should it be able to exceed 10% without one?

But anyway, assuming there is no straightforward logic to this, you're saying I could buy up 90% of the tickets manually and thus have a 90% chance to win?