QUOTE(LOL50015 @ Sep 10 2017, 03:36)
Say, can someone explain how the "do not want" improves me odds of winning the other prizes?
By opting out of the 1st prize, you ensure that someone else gets 1st prize, which effectively nullifies their tickets for the rest of the prizes. If you consider the grand prize useless, but you buy a notable proportion of tickets in hopes of tokens or something, then you would want to use "Do Not Want" to turn the chances of (win grand prize => you paid GP for something you don't want) from (3%? 5%? 10%?) to 0%.
This is probably most effective in generally undesirable lotteries (with small ticket counts and with fewer participants). In those, ensuring that someone else (likely someone who used many tickets) gets the 1st prize rather than yourself will moderately increase your chance of winning 2nd-4th prizes; if the total ticket pool is 8000 and you've put in 1000, then your chances of failing due to 1st place go down from 1/8 to 0.
One might say that "Do Not Want" is somewhat less useful in big lotteries since "your chances of failing due to 1st place" is probably already pretty low. Still, it helps.
Example: Lottery with 400k effective tickets total. There are 20 people who have each put in 20k tickets, including you.
Standard:
Your chance for 1st: 20k/400k = 0.05. If other wins, remove their tickets from the pool:
Your chance for 2nd: (0.95) * (20k/380k) = 0.05. If other wins, remove their tickets from the pool:
Your chance for 3rd: (0.90) * (20k/360k) = 0.05. If other wins, remove their tickets from the pool:
Your chance for 4th: (0.85) * (20k/340k) = 0.05
Your chance for 5th: (0.80) * (20k/320k) = 0.05
(makes sense: in a fair game, 5 prizes among 20 players => 1/4th chance to win anything. 20% chance to win 2nd-5th)
You press "Do Not Want":
Your chance for 1st: 0. Other wins, remove their tickets from the pool:
Your chance for 2nd: (1) * (20k/380k) = 1/19 = 0.0526. If other wins, remove their tickets from the pool:
Your chance for 3rd: (18/19) * (20k/360k) = 1/19 = 0.0526. If other wins, remove their tickets from the pool:
Your chance for 4th: (17/19) * (20k/340k) = 1/19 = 0.0526
Your chance for 5th: (16/19) * (20k/320k) = 1/19 = 0.0526
4/19 = 21.1% chance to win 2nd-5th
Of course, this assumes no one else is pressing "Do Not Want". The more who press "Do Not Want" along with you, the closer your win chances revert to the numbers in "Standard".
The larger your proportion of the effective ticket pool, the greater the (desired prize win%+) effect of "Do Not Want".
Edit: See below, it seems "Do Not Want" also increases your effective tickets by 20%, so some of the math above is bad.
This post has been edited by Superlatanium: Sep 10 2017, 13:37
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