[X] My Assistant

Totally gonna win with ~0,1% chance (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cool.gif) (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

(IMG:[i.imgur.com] http://i.imgur.com/lJV8XW0.png)

Fine ... get nothing with 41% chance.

a certain somepony would say "41% chance to win means 59% chance not to win". cheer up and think to the next one (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

Fine ... get nothing with 41% chance.

Did you try to get a last minute Golden Lottery Ticket for the PHOH? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/blink.gif)

I have Legendary Cobalt Power Boots of Balance with good ADB, but I don't think they are worth that much.

a certain somepony would say "41% chance to win means 59% chance not to win". cheer up and think to the next one (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

59% is not the chance to win nothing, it just means not winning the first prize.
This is a case of Conditional Probability.

59% is not the chance to win nothing, it just means not winning the first prize.
This is a case of Conditional Probability.

whatever. 58.9% chance not to win anything, 59% chance not to win the thing that you want (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

(IMG:[i.imgur.com] http://i.imgur.com/jldIbk4.jpg)
Fine ... get nothing with 41% chance.

*10%

RoadShoe: Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: No.
RoadShoe: Come on... Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: No!
RoadShoe: Gimme that staff betch.
Snowflake: Don't call me betch.
RoadShoe: Betch, hand over that staff
Snowflake: I'm gonna kick you in the head...
RoadShoe: I know... everyday.. Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: THUMP!!
Roadshoe: Used to it... Steel plate.. (Tink! Tink!) Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: Get away from me!
RoadShoe: Where you going!?! Hey!! Gimme that staff betch.

58.9% chance not to win anything

Pretty sure it should be much lower in a normal lottery. This one probably uses some needlessly complicated formula with a couple of logarithms thrown in just for shits and giggles like usual. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)

840,094 tickets for PHOH, almost 1/42 chance with 20,000 tickets! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

RoadShoe: Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: No.
RoadShoe: Come on... Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: No!
RoadShoe: Gimme that staff betch.
Snowflake: Don't call me betch.
RoadShoe: Betch, hand over that staff
Snowflake: I'm gonna kick you in the head...
RoadShoe: I know... everyday.. Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: THUMP!!
Roadshoe: Used to it... Steel plate.. (Tink! Tink!) Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: Get away from me!
RoadShoe: Where you going!?! Hey!! Gimme that staff betch.

(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

Pretty sure it should be much lower in a normal lottery. This one probably uses some needlessly complicated formula with a couple of logarithms thrown in just for shits and giggles like usual. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)

yep. pretty sure there's a logarithm of an exponential just to throw in a logarithm. and because the function itself would be too mainstream (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

whatever. 58.9% chance not to win anything, 59% chance not to win the thing that you want (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

Well, that'd be with just the winning ticket removed, but if someone wins 1 price all tickets of the player get removed from the pot ... so, might go from 40% of the pot to 60% to 80% to 90% to 99% and still not winning anything (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

Well, you can speculate everything you want, but if the screen states that nothing will bring you past 10% of the effective ticket count, it means that every drawing will have ALWAYS 90% chance to not win or more, no matter what.

Well, you can speculate everything you want, but if the screen states that nothing will bring you past 10% of the effective ticket count, it means that every drawing will have ALWAYS 90% chance to not win or more, no matter what.

That's only for GLT double ticket bonus, not normal tickets.

That's only for GLT double ticket bonus, not normal tickets.

It would make no sense. If the GLT can't go past the 10% count, I don't think the normal tickets would either.

[attachembed=99891]

my first time ever lottery,
just for the lol
(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

It would make no sense. If the GLT can't go past the 10% count, I don't think the normal tickets would either.

- A new item, the Golden Lottery Ticket, has been added. You can spend one (and only one) GLT on a lottery, which will immediately give you 1000 tickets. Additionally, at the time of drawing, it will double your effective tickets up to a maximum of 10% of the total tickets bought.
-- If you already have more than 10% of the total tickets, it will have no effect. If you have >5% and <10%, it will effectively give you 10%.

- There is now a hard cap in the lottery of 20,000 tickets per person. For reference, the single largest entry so far was 600,001 tickets.
Taken together, the last two changes should prevent people from losing the farm on "all-in" bets for single items, while providing more potential worth-while gear to let the lottery still function as an efficient GP sink.

What makes no sense is letting people buy as many tickets as they want like it was in the past and cap the chance at 10% and nowhere it's stated that that's the case.
GLT can't go past 10% because that would actually make it useful for more than a couple of lotteries per year. Can't have that.

Btw, if you get 41% chances of winning, you get (0.59^5)=7.15% chances of not winning anything. More considering winners can't get more than one prize.

Well, you can speculate everything you want, but if the screen states that nothing will bring you past 10% of the effective ticket count, it means that every drawing will have ALWAYS 90% chance to not win or more, no matter what.

Optimist: Glass is Half full

Pessimist: Glass is Half Empty

Engineer: Marketing screwed up again, and gave us the wrong capacity.

Edit: Obviously, if you invest 10,000 tickets in an auction total of 10,001, you're gonna win.
It'll be the soul fragments, but you "will" win.
If you throw a golden lottery ticket in for the giggles... cause you have 6,000 of them... then you still win.

Right?

This post has been edited by RoadShoe: Mar 1 2017, 16:32

Optimist: Glass is Half full

Pessimist: Glass is Half Empty

Engineer: Marketing screwed up again, and gave us the wrong capacity.

Realist: The glass is half full of water and half full of air.

i remember all of you that lottery is meant as a GP sink for bored rich individuals. and btw, tenboro already pointed out a while ago that the amount of Peerless coming from lottery was a mere fraction of those generated everyday. ratio should be even more unbalanced now, i guess.

the only difference about *that* peerless and those other ones is that we know who has it. nothing more, nothing less (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)