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> The Official Hentaiverse Chat, Post your random thoughts or theorycrafts about HV

 
post Mar 1 2017, 12:53
Post #38181
NerfThis



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QUOTE(cmos @ Mar 1 2017, 16:26) *

So many PHOHs. When was the last time PDWD appeared in the lottery? Or LDWD for that matter. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/unsure.gif)

Edit: It seems last time it happened was several years ago: http://hentaiverse.org/?s=Bazaar&ss=lt&lottery=304
Something's wrong with their drop rates. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/huh.gif)


From Aug 12 2015 till Dec 22 2016
Nope

This post has been edited by NerfThis: Mar 1 2017, 12:54
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post Mar 1 2017, 13:26
Post #38182
Cleavs



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QUOTE(Slobber @ Mar 1 2017, 11:27) *

all about them blood tokens xD

yep, i'll be fine with them too...
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post Mar 1 2017, 14:35
Post #38183
morineko



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Fine ... get nothing with 41% chance.
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post Mar 1 2017, 14:44
Post #38184
Benny-boy



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Totally gonna win with ~0,1% chance (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cool.gif) (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

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post Mar 1 2017, 15:14
Post #38185
Cleavs



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QUOTE(morineko @ Mar 1 2017, 13:35) *

Fine ... get nothing with 41% chance.

a certain somepony would say "41% chance to win means 59% chance not to win". cheer up and think to the next one (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)
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post Mar 1 2017, 15:17
Post #38186
Logii



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QUOTE(morineko @ Mar 1 2017, 14:35) *

Fine ... get nothing with 41% chance.

Did you try to get a last minute Golden Lottery Ticket for the PHOH? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/blink.gif)

I have Legendary Cobalt Power Boots of Balance with good ADB, but I don't think they are worth that much.
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post Mar 1 2017, 15:22
Post #38187
morineko



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QUOTE(Scremaz @ Mar 1 2017, 21:14) *

a certain somepony would say "41% chance to win means 59% chance not to win". cheer up and think to the next one (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

59% is not the chance to win nothing, it just means not winning the first prize.
This is a case of Conditional Probability.
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post Mar 1 2017, 15:24
Post #38188
Cleavs



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QUOTE(morineko @ Mar 1 2017, 14:22) *

59% is not the chance to win nothing, it just means not winning the first prize.
This is a case of Conditional Probability.

whatever. 58.9% chance not to win anything, 59% chance not to win the thing that you want (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)
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post Mar 1 2017, 15:44
Post #38189
Juggernaut Santa



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QUOTE(morineko @ Mar 1 2017, 13:35) *

(IMG:[i.imgur.com] http://i.imgur.com/jldIbk4.jpg)
Fine ... get nothing with 41% chance.

*10%
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post Mar 1 2017, 15:46
Post #38190
RoadShoe



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RoadShoe: Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: No.
RoadShoe: Come on... Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: No!
RoadShoe: Gimme that staff betch.
Snowflake: Don't call me betch.
RoadShoe: Betch, hand over that staff
Snowflake: I'm gonna kick you in the head...
RoadShoe: I know... everyday.. Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: THUMP!!
Roadshoe: Used to it... Steel plate.. (Tink! Tink!) Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: Get away from me!
RoadShoe: Where you going!?! Hey!! Gimme that staff betch.
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post Mar 1 2017, 15:48
Post #38191
cmos



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QUOTE(Scremaz @ Mar 1 2017, 16:24) *

58.9% chance not to win anything

Pretty sure it should be much lower in a normal lottery. This one probably uses some needlessly complicated formula with a couple of logarithms thrown in just for shits and giggles like usual. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)
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post Mar 1 2017, 15:49
Post #38192
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840,094 tickets for PHOH, almost 1/42 chance with 20,000 tickets! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)
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post Mar 1 2017, 15:57
Post #38193
Cleavs



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QUOTE(RoadShoe @ Mar 1 2017, 14:46) *

RoadShoe: Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: No.
RoadShoe: Come on... Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: No!
RoadShoe: Gimme that staff betch.
Snowflake: Don't call me betch.
RoadShoe: Betch, hand over that staff
Snowflake: I'm gonna kick you in the head...
RoadShoe: I know... everyday.. Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: THUMP!!
Roadshoe: Used to it... Steel plate.. (Tink! Tink!) Gimme that staff.
Snowflake: Get away from me!
RoadShoe: Where you going!?! Hey!! Gimme that staff betch.

(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

QUOTE(cmos @ Mar 1 2017, 14:48) *

Pretty sure it should be much lower in a normal lottery. This one probably uses some needlessly complicated formula with a couple of logarithms thrown in just for shits and giggles like usual. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)

yep. pretty sure there's a logarithm of an exponential just to throw in a logarithm. and because the function itself would be too mainstream (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)
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post Mar 1 2017, 15:59
Post #38194
simrock87



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QUOTE(Scremaz @ Mar 1 2017, 13:24) *

whatever. 58.9% chance not to win anything, 59% chance not to win the thing that you want (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

Well, that'd be with just the winning ticket removed, but if someone wins 1 price all tickets of the player get removed from the pot ... so, might go from 40% of the pot to 60% to 80% to 90% to 99% and still not winning anything (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)
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post Mar 1 2017, 16:04
Post #38195
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Well, you can speculate everything you want, but if the screen states that nothing will bring you past 10% of the effective ticket count, it means that every drawing will have ALWAYS 90% chance to not win or more, no matter what.
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post Mar 1 2017, 16:11
Post #38196
cmos



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QUOTE(End Of All Hope @ Mar 1 2017, 17:04) *

Well, you can speculate everything you want, but if the screen states that nothing will bring you past 10% of the effective ticket count, it means that every drawing will have ALWAYS 90% chance to not win or more, no matter what.

That's only for GLT double ticket bonus, not normal tickets.
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post Mar 1 2017, 16:13
Post #38197
Juggernaut Santa



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QUOTE(cmos @ Mar 1 2017, 15:11) *

That's only for GLT double ticket bonus, not normal tickets.

It would make no sense. If the GLT can't go past the 10% count, I don't think the normal tickets would either.
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post Mar 1 2017, 16:20
Post #38198
DIEGOarnanta



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[attachembed=99891]

my first time ever lottery,
just for the lol
(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)
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post Mar 1 2017, 16:24
Post #38199
cmos



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QUOTE(End Of All Hope @ Mar 1 2017, 17:13) *

It would make no sense. If the GLT can't go past the 10% count, I don't think the normal tickets would either.

QUOTE
- A new item, the Golden Lottery Ticket, has been added. You can spend one (and only one) GLT on a lottery, which will immediately give you 1000 tickets. Additionally, at the time of drawing, it will double your effective tickets up to a maximum of 10% of the total tickets bought.
-- If you already have more than 10% of the total tickets, it will have no effect. If you have >5% and <10%, it will effectively give you 10%.

QUOTE
- There is now a hard cap in the lottery of 20,000 tickets per person. For reference, the single largest entry so far was 600,001 tickets.
Taken together, the last two changes should prevent people from losing the farm on "all-in" bets for single items, while providing more potential worth-while gear to let the lottery still function as an efficient GP sink.

What makes no sense is letting people buy as many tickets as they want like it was in the past and cap the chance at 10% and nowhere it's stated that that's the case.
GLT can't go past 10% because that would actually make it useful for more than a couple of lotteries per year. Can't have that.
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post Mar 1 2017, 16:28
Post #38200
-The Dashing Dash-



I hope that doesn't make me a Brony...
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Btw, if you get 41% chances of winning, you get (0.59^5)=7.15% chances of not winning anything. More considering winners can't get more than one prize.
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