[X] My Assistant

I am now up to four days of doing the top 4 arena runs and have scored not a single damned Precursor Artifact. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/blink.gif) (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/mad.gif)

what do you mean top 4

what do you mean top 4

A Dance with Dragons, Eternal Darkness, End of Days, The Trio and the Tree

Yep. SG arenas especially aren't good for artifacts because the SGs are very tanky and more often drop trophies, in addition to the rounds generally having low monster density.

Standard arenas and GF are both much better for artifacts.

Yep. SG arenas especially aren't good for artifacts because the SGs are very tanky and more often drop trophies, in addition to the rounds generally having low monster density.

Standard arenas and GF are both much better for artifacts.

But I used to get a lot of artifacts from those arenas. Was there a recent patch that changed this?

But I used to get a lot of artifacts from those arenas.

Do you have specific data? I'd be quite surprised if anyone had a statistically significant average of over 2.5.

There was no patch. With the info I have, it look like with completely maxed drop trainings, medium-high level players should get close to 2.0 artifacts on average after running those 4 arenas. Without maxed drop trainings, I wouldn't be surprised if your true average was closer to 1.5 or 1.3; either way, due to the average being so low, multiple days of getting 0 artifacts from those arenas should not be uncommon. (edit: I just got 0 artifacts too)

This post has been edited by Superlatanium: Jan 27 2017, 08:56

Artifact drop from arena sucks (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)
It's been 4 days that I do ALL the arenas of the day.

The record of artifact drops is:
- 1
- 0
- 4
- 2

Archaeologist 3.

I am now up to four days of doing the top 4 arena runs and have scored not a single damned Precursor Artifact. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/blink.gif) (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/mad.gif)

Artifact drop from arena sucks (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)
It's been 4 days that I do ALL the arenas of the day.

The record of artifact drops is:
- 1
- 0
- 4
- 2

Archaeologist 3.

Lady Luck Snowflake is a fickle goddess (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

Hath price is still slightly decreasing...who was again saying that they were going to raise immediately? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

Do you have specific data? I'd be quite surprised if anyone had a statistically significant average of over 2.5.

There was no patch. With the info I have, it look like with completely maxed drop trainings, medium-high level players should get close to 2.0 artifacts on average after running those 4 arenas. Without maxed drop trainings, I wouldn't be surprised if your true average was closer to 1.5 or 1.3; either way, due to the average being so low, multiple days of getting 0 artifacts from those arenas should not be uncommon. (edit: I just got 0 artifacts too)

I wish I had data from the last few months. All I know is I've never gone more than 1 day without at least one artifact drop, ever. Four days is beyond noticeable considering my experience with artifact drops. This is especially odd since I raised my Archaeologist to Level 5. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/blink.gif) Maybe my luck has run out and this will be more common from this point on? So I'm kinda stuck with lower level arenas and no trophies and grindfest which will take hours to complete especially if I try it at pf. And no Crystarium perk as of yet.

Been a few days I'm getting less artifacts too.

25 7 You evade the attack from In Memory Of Dark Mages Jz01.
25 6 You evade the attack from Machi Amayadori.
25 5 You evade the attack from Sssss3.
25 4 You evade the attack from Cracker Jim.
25 3 You evade the attack from Kirisame Marisa.
25 2 Temp111 has been defeated.

music for my eyes (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cool2.gif)

Are you quite sure? That sounds extraordinarily unlikely, I'd be very suspicious of your data.

Around 2140 monsters in those arenas that won't drop a trophy
Probability of artifact drop per monster kill: 0.000738549 given Archaeologist 5 and other trainings maxed
P(n successes, N trials) [here, 'trial' = 'monster kill', 'success' = 'artifact drop']
= (N!)/(n!(N-n)) * p^n * (1-p)^(N-n)
Probability of 0 artifacts from 2140 monsters:
= (N!)/(n!(N-n)) * p^n * (1-p)^(N-n)
= (2140!)/(0!(2140)) * 0.000738549^0 * (1-0.000738549)^(2140)
(using binomial distribution program)
= 0.205753015
So you'd expect to find 0 artifacts once every 5 days or so. Not uncommon. Getting 0 artifacts multiple days in a row would be rarer, but not impossible.

On the other hand, getting at least 1 artifact for each of 100+ days is not only quite unlikely, but pretty much impossible:
= (1 - 0.205753015) ^ 100
= 9.89822883e-11

(if it were more than 100 days, which it likely is, the probability would be orders of magnitude lower)

Always make sure of your data first; if your map does not match the territory, your conclusions will be wrong

Are you quite sure? That sounds extraordinarily unlikely, I'd be very suspicious of your data.

Around 2140 monsters in those arenas that won't drop a trophy
Probability of artifact drop per monster kill: 0.000738549 given Archaeologist 5 and other trainings maxed
P(n successes, N trials) [here, 'trial' = 'monster kill', 'success' = 'artifact drop']
= (N!)/(n!(N-n)) * p^n * (1-p)^(N-n)
Probability of 0 artifacts from 2140 monsters:
= (N!)/(n!(N-n)) * p^n * (1-p)^(N-n)
= (2140!)/(0!(2140)) * 0.000738549^0 * (1-0.000738549)^(2140)
(using binomial distribution program)
= 0.205753015
So you'd expect to find 0 artifacts once every 5 days or so. Not uncommon. Getting 0 artifacts multiple days in a row would be rarer, but not impossible.

On the other hand, getting at least 1 artifact for each of 100+ days is not only quite unlikely, but pretty much impossible:
= (1 - 0.205753015) ^ 100
= 9.89822883e-11

(if it were more than 100 days, which it likely is, the probability would be orders of magnitude lower)

Always make sure of your data first; if your map does not match the territory, your conclusions will be wrong

Thanks for doing the maths! My gut feel was that it would be statistically unlikely behaviour.

Today I haven't obtained a single artifact from the entirety of all arenas from the first to forelast, while I do have Archeologist 7 and Scavenger 40.
While I also haven't been victim of the drop rate penalty, since I haven't played yesterday. I did receive my daily pack of equipments and other stuff though.

I used to get between 5 and 8 artifacts a day.

Today I haven't obtained a single artifact from the entirety of all arenas from the first to forelast, while I do have Archeologist 7 and Scavenger 40.
While I also haven't been victim of the drop rate penalty, since I haven't played yesterday. I did receive my daily pack of equipments and other stuff though.

I used to get between 5 and 8 artifacts a day.

I never got that many artifacts a day, even doing all Arenas...

Today I haven't obtained a single artifact from the entirety of all arenas from the first to forelast, while I do have Archeologist 7 and Scavenger 40.
While I also haven't been victim of the drop rate penalty, since I haven't played yesterday. I did receive my daily pack of equipments and other stuff though.

I used to get between 5 and 8 artifacts a day.

So I'm not the only one!

I got ONE artifact today!

But now I have another problem - playing at full speed my turns per second has fallen to 0.98!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No wonder my attempt at a Grindfest run was crap slow as fuck!

I am now up to four days of doing the top 4 arena runs and have scored not a single damned Precursor Artifact. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/blink.gif) (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/mad.gif)

Do not worry about it. These things happen to everyone once in a while. Today I only got 2 artifacts, but it was in Item World (0 in the last 4 Arenas). Sometimes the opposite occurs. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/happy.gif)

Do not worry about it. These things happen to everyone once in a while. Today I only got 2 artifacts, but it was in Item World (0 in the last 4 Arenas). Sometimes the opposite occurs. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/happy.gif)

2 artifacts in 1000 rounds? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/blink.gif)

This post has been edited by jacquelope: Jan 28 2017, 03:59

2 artifacts in 1000 rounds? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/blink.gif)

Yes,I also got 2artifacts from GF. Weird? Sometimes you got more sometimes less but average still the same.