[X] My Assistant

I've collected data for which round the pony quiz appears.

Total 870 of collected round are used to obtain some statistic.

749 from GrindFest
24 from 150 Arena
25 from 125 Arena
25 from 110 Arena
24 from 100 Arena
14 from 50 Arena
9 from 40 Arena

I'll show the collected data bottom of this post.

I'd thought that the riddlemaster randomly appear at each round, however, the statistics tell me that is wrong.

A chart for the interval (rounds) between two riddlemaster


A chart for the round first riddlemaster appear


I strongly guess those:
1. The first riddlemaster appear 2 or 21~101 round
2. Next of riddlemaster appear between 20 and 100 rounds


The data from Grindfest are follows:

41 75 112 146 186 231 297 327 420 458 529 623 671 714 772 856 903 988
41 73 103 193 287 373 465 494 579 652 686 748 804 846 913 988
98 168 261 312 337 417 497 587 628 650 724 812 843 863 887 965
86 186 276 337 435 484 568 625 701 776 854 901 996
101 146 174 215 280 329 414 501 587 661 691 727 793 890 982
80 102 139 234 322 422 445 499 529 621 676 746 775 837 899 982
63 86 148 190 246 269 324 374 456 546 607 672 719 751 819 851 889 937
61 109 186 213 273 299 399 441 489 566 656 738 801 844 918 938
36 81 173 232 295 375 434 530 605 669 706 763 820 867 934
83 115 158 204 304 327 420 513 562 586 647 718 758 853 894 927 961
84 111 206 262 351 411 457 519 570 630 663 698 730 801 832 899 988
55 89 146 185 262 315 345 425 491 548 645 723 771 868 926 980
98 124 158 198 249 305 343 391 476 525 596 633 654 703 761 852 904 955
30 57 115 176 233 281 344 379 399 431 466 548 625 667 719 796 843 931 966
93 118 173 231 255 309 393 489 524 557 593 654 695 778 874 910 953 989
24 62 147 196 221 298 336 390 460 491 542 568 647 728 784 860 896 966 989
67 141 176 228 269 330 421 443 493 577 611 655 736 807 859 915 952
94 154 177 204 280 321 347 401 469 525 545 620 681 704 773 812 906 961
42 120 210 305 358 452 544 627 653 746 806 887 935 981
87 170 245 267 306 405 433 504 555 618 690 764 790 865 926
2 95 190 262 286 369 393 491 511 558 631 723 777 822 903 926
38 85 142 164 195 242 270 320 340 390 465 501 552 602 645 692 773 841 898 924
88 127 176 239 264 360 445 484 545 641 726 757 829 858 915 993
37 81 108 156 255 318 403 500 595 630 721 811 900 922 956
43 107 157 202 299 342 378 408 458 521 596 658 756 848 906 977
45 135 222 275 353 409 432 484 554 594 689 724 821 843 880 914
52 120 163 231 254 285 336 361 452 528 620 651 722 772 859 959
55 98 187 252 280 364 442 536 579 622 682 726 750 791 876 973
38 135 225 256 307 362 398 492 551 612 682 714 805 890 952 998
60 137 200 256 289 349 373 459 506 560 652 703 744 822 910 999
47 70 155 239 291 312 368 405 493 539 570 648 738 773 847 903 993
34 71 128 169 234 320 380 423 501 597 654 734 833 864 961 991
59 96 117 217 314 372 420 512 566 590 667 753 779 800 836 859 941 976
61 149 237 302 376 419 479 571 651 708 804 843 888 924
82 103 194 237 265 315 364 427 463 500 553 596 696 730 812 855 951
97 139 219 264 302 348 409 474 545 586 667 693 788 841 892 916 937
45 117 171 193 282 321 402 484 520 619 704 775 814 901 988
2 27 53 105 131 215 239 322 408 438 460 525 562 584 628 649 698 776 876 917
84 107 137 193 223 316 404 438 531 630 682 782 849 911 958 992
74 101 134 171 194 232 279 372 450 547 645 739 785 848 930 996
59 157 221 289 359 413 450 526 585 630 693 725 793 844 942 982
2 56 115 145 204 247 328 357 425 456 554 619 647 673 714 758 789 824 881 940 988
64 149 174 266 291 382 444 527 581 650 678 717 793 866 914 943 994
49 82 111 198 243 324 368 398 448 487 540 577 627 669 725 770 812 905
2 92 176 218 266 328 361 406 479 541 633 703 779 826 875 956 992

The data from 150 Arena are follows:
50 72 144
78 124
101
33 113 139
89 143
27 72 150
52 86 146
73 97
92 124 145
54 129
31 111 145
55 85 131
2 34 101
62 123
25 64 142
50 112
88 143
39 131
2 24 89
71 140
2 27 85 133
83
83
34 91 124

The data from 125 Arena are follows:
51 124
89
28 82
73 111
51 104
81 109
96
51
78
77
80
81
40 116
30 98
34 84
46
95
49 113
101
80 111
46 74
57 119
92
70 107
82 110

The data from 110 Arena are follows:
77
93
42 107
35
45 95
36 80 107
2 76 109
35 79
61
81
2 101
39 93
99
47 91
58 79
42
24
99
70
23 49
56 92
50 101
30 81
82
48

The data from 100 Arena are follows:
55 94
39
2 76
73
21 72
95
96
81
79
89
60 82
2 96
71
2 68
25
65
91
2 46
97
90
48
43
2 91
55

The data from 50 Arena are follows:
35
23
2
24
35
2 34
2 30
37
2 32
44
31
25
30
34

The data from 40 Arena are follows:
2
2
26
29
2
27
2
2
26

The data from 30 Arena are follows:
2
26
2

I love these little bits of data collecting and analysis.

...

I strongly guess those:
1. The first riddlemaster appear 2 or 21~101 round
2. Next of riddlemaster appear between 20 and 100 rounds

...

I guess that was kinda nice appear rates setting. you can almost cast all the heavy costs buff skill and get mana restored by answering riddlemaster in the 2 round，it's benefit player saving the mana potions (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif) i think it's good how abou you ? anyway thanks sharing the big data it's must be take long time to collecting them

Amazing! now i can res assure when im gonna get one of those.

Great research, i think it took you lotta time.

(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

the charts you posted don't look like hinting at a specific relation. would you mind to explain what exactly makes you "strongly guess" those round windows?

the charts you posted don't look like hinting at a specific relation. would you mind to explain what exactly makes you "strongly guess" those round windows?

Well.... I wonder may I can describe my guessing well.
Please excuse for my broken english.

My thought was started from some observation: there is no interval round smaller than 20 or larger than 100, even though 20 and 100 rounds intervals frequently appear!
So I first roughly guess : Oh, the RiddleMaster(RM) appear between 20-100 rounds next.
Further, the first round, which RM appear, also seems to belong 2 or [21-101]. (This is the result from observation of the in-game data)
Except the second round, 21-101 rounds is clearly shown that first round plus random interval between 20-100.
I think this appearance of first RM is second evidence for intervals of RM.

In addtion, chart of "interval" count from GrindFest is seems to that from random number of uniform distribution.
To compare in-game data and random data, I generate 756 random numbers from excel and count them.
Total count of generated random number is same as intervals obtained from GrinedFest (you can check data at the bottom of this post).


(blue is data from random number and orange is data from in-game)

I think two charts are amazingly similar to data obtained from the game.

So I think my guess has three evidence : first is from interval of two RM, second is round of first RM, the last is similarity between in-game data and histogram of random numbers. Thus I've "strongly guess".

Thanks (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)
and sorry for my poor english (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/sad.gif)


Added data from GrindFest:
41 75 112 146 186 231 297 327 420 458 529 623 671 714 772 856 903 988
41 73 103 193 287 373 465 494 579 652 686 748 804 846 913 988
98 168 261 312 337 417 497 587 628 650 724 812 843 863 887 965
86 186 276 337 435 484 568 625 701 776 854 901 996
101 146 174 215 280 329 414 501 587 661 691 727 793 890 982
80 102 139 234 322 422 445 499 529 621 676 746 775 837 899 982
63 86 148 190 246 269 324 374 456 546 607 672 719 751 819 851 889 937
61 109 186 213 273 299 399 441 489 566 656 738 801 844 918 938
36 81 173 232 295 375 434 530 605 669 706 763 820 867 934
83 115 158 204 304 327 420 513 562 586 647 718 758 853 894 927 961
84 111 206 262 351 411 457 519 570 630 663 698 730 801 832 899 988
55 89 146 185 262 315 345 425 491 548 645 723 771 868 926 980
98 124 158 198 249 305 343 391 476 525 596 633 654 703 761 852 904 955
30 57 115 176 233 281 344 379 399 431 466 548 625 667 719 796 843 931 966
93 118 173 231 255 309 393 489 524 557 593 654 695 778 874 910 953 989
24 62 147 196 221 298 336 390 460 491 542 568 647 728 784 860 896 966 989
67 141 176 228 269 330 421 443 493 577 611 655 736 807 859 915 952
94 154 177 204 280 321 347 401 469 525 545 620 681 704 773 812 906 961
42 120 210 305 358 452 544 627 653 746 806 887 935 981
87 170 245 267 306 405 433 504 555 618 690 764 790 865 926
2 95 190 262 286 369 393 491 511 558 631 723 777 822 903 926
38 85 142 164 195 242 270 320 340 390 465 501 552 602 645 692 773 841 898 924
88 127 176 239 264 360 445 484 545 641 726 757 829 858 915 993
37 81 108 156 255 318 403 500 595 630 721 811 900 922 956
43 107 157 202 299 342 378 408 458 521 596 658 756 848 906 977
45 135 222 275 353 409 432 484 554 594 689 724 821 843 880 914
52 120 163 231 254 285 336 361 452 528 620 651 722 772 859 959
55 98 187 252 280 364 442 536 579 622 682 726 750 791 876 973
38 135 225 256 307 362 398 492 551 612 682 714 805 890 952 998
60 137 200 256 289 349 373 459 506 560 652 703 744 822 910 999
47 70 155 239 291 312 368 405 493 539 570 648 738 773 847 903 993
34 71 128 169 234 320 380 423 501 597 654 734 833 864 961 991
59 96 117 217 314 372 420 512 566 590 667 753 779 800 836 859 941 976
61 149 237 302 376 419 479 571 651 708 804 843 888 924
82 103 194 237 265 315 364 427 463 500 553 596 696 730 812 855 951
97 139 219 264 302 348 409 474 545 586 667 693 788 841 892 916 937
45 117 171 193 282 321 402 484 520 619 704 775 814 901 988
2 27 53 105 131 215 239 322 408 438 460 525 562 584 628 649 698 776 876 917
84 107 137 193 223 316 404 438 531 630 682 782 849 911 958 992
74 101 134 171 194 232 279 372 450 547 645 739 785 848 930 996
59 157 221 289 359 413 450 526 585 630 693 725 793 844 942 982
2 56 115 145 204 247 328 357 425 456 554 619 647 673 714 758 789 824 881 940 988
64 149 174 266 291 382 444 527 581 650 678 717 793 866 914 943 994
49 82 111 198 243 324 368 398 448 487 540 577 627 669 725 770 812 905
2 92 176 218 266 328 361 406 479 541 633 703 779 826 875 956 992
101 199 236 328 418 477 529 552 624 708 786 811 848 894 966
44 80 134 229 313 389 471 549 570 618 664 694 746 813 877 919 969
64 96 128 192 229 249 270 331 378 452 479 555 643 740 771 860 935
33 66 96 179 264 304 355 441 476 536 589 648 718 816 890 930

This post has been edited by name83u5: Jul 23 2019, 13:18

the charts you posted don't look like hinting at a specific relation. would you mind to explain what exactly makes you "strongly guess" those round windows?

I also don't get what he meant.

This is what I derived from the numbers:

- For each arena (or GF), it seems like RM never appears at the first round, the earliest RM can appear is the 2nd round.
- Interesting enough, the interval between two consecutive appearances of RM seem to lie between 20-100 rounds (inclusive). Due to this, if you don't get RM in the 2nd round of an arena or GF, you must see one between the 21st round and 101st round.

This post has been edited by Ass Spanker: Jul 23 2019, 21:49

If the RNG that make Riddlemaster appear use the time of day, the whole thing is pointless, because reliant on the speed of the user, and whether he gets AFK and take pauses or not.
Would have been perfect for fully automated playthroughs though, but those are not allowed (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

Would have been perfect for fully automated playthroughs though, but those are not allowed (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

caution, that's quite the minefield...

If the RNG that make Riddlemaster appear use the time of day, the whole thing is pointless, because reliant on the speed of the user, and whether he gets AFK and take pauses or not.
Would have been perfect for fully automated playthroughs though, but those are not allowed (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

That was my first consideration before collecting data.
If appearance of RM depends on real time, the whole thing based on interval is just garbage as you pointed out.
However, thanks to new MonsterBation (MB) script, I found that the number of RM (shown as horses in MB) seems not depending on total playtime. You also can check it in this thread.

Anyway, every statistics, analysis in this thread were done just for fun (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

caution, that's quite the minefield...

I also agree (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

This post has been edited by name83u5: Jul 24 2019, 10:28

interesting
In my memory, it comes around every 30mins.(only arena)
But 15mins for excessive battle.(ar+grinfest)

This post has been edited by Sachia Lanlus: Jul 26 2019, 15:55