QUOTE(Necromusume @ Apr 14 2025, 19:35)

It was just about getting them to negotiate... or it really is about onshoring and replacing the income tax with tariffs.
Its not exactly rocket science, he published several manifestos and books (probably ghost written to a large extent) on the topic.
TLDR:
-He believes in American exceptionalism as the basis for US wealth (it can be argued whether that is real or not)
-He believes weak/corrupt US administrations have lead to the massive capital account deficit and US budget deficit. (They did find like 500 billion in corrupt spending and cut $155 billion)
-He believes China especially has been a strong negotiator and has a strong leader but has taken advantage of the previously mentioned weak US administrations.
This post went over the word limit and therefore is retarded.
Fundamentally he believes in American exceptionalism as he is literally a 80-90s Democrat. He believes that the Kissinger policy which then transitioned to the Clinton policy were poorly negotiated and disadvantage US leading to structural capital account deficits and wealth being transferred overseas. He uses his Apprentice character as part of the MAD strategy where he has to convince people that he is crazy enough to do things otherwise there is no leverage to negotiate.
There are three main points:
1. This Kissinger era deals were made during the cold war and should be renegotiated to not disadvantage the US. So this includes most favored nation status, allowing China into international bodies without the scrutiny that was applied to Russia, allowing free technology transfers and evaluating/renegotiating the US role in funding NATO and European defense.
2. There was an opportunity to renegotiate in the 90s but Bill Clinton was weak and corrupt, the same with many DC insiders at the time who went on to enrich themselves in return for turning a legislative blind eye. Did I mention he hates the Clintons and what they represent?
3. The last point is that he looks at how China negotiates and sees how they strong arm nations around the world when negotiating and make one sided deals that benefit China in return for access to a mythical domestic market which does not exist. Increasingly since 2008 and accelerating after 2016, demand from China has been driven by government spending, central planning and subsidies. Repeatedly Trump has stated, if China is the biggest threat, then why does the US not make deals like China? For example, if countries want access the US market they will need to reduce the barriers and protections that have crept back in since the 90s. I personally don't agree with everything that is being asked for, but he has asked every single country to negotiate on a set of terms they definitely won't compromise on and a set that they can comprise.
Its not all coming from Trump obviously but he asked his advisors what are the deals China is making and how do we get in on those, this explains the 'random' policies he announces.
- China was making moves to take over Greenland and Panama for example, so Trump announced he would make deals. China was used to Biden and were caught off guard by America actually waking up. One of the terms he has asked countries for in order to reduce tariffs is to drop out of the belt and road initiative.
- China has been redirecting goods through Mexico, Canada, Australia, Japan, etc etc to avoid tariffs. So he went with the 'fuck em' tariff them all and force them to negotiate on this behavior strategy. Personally I did not know Australia was selling Chinese steel to the US for example. There are multiple islands that were ports of convenience to forward goods that were hit with 'random' tariffs' as well.
-China's opportunity to invade Taiwan to unify the country and obtain the divine right to rule is between 2025-2030 after that it will be difficult as they have entered into the Japan trap of massively over-leveraging, losing the population dividend and distorting their economy with government policy and currency manipulation.
-He is super biased against any Biden era policies or negotiations, he literally assumes they are dog turd and should be thrown out. Some might be good but he doesn't care. Anything Biden is turd.
Where he is probably wrong:-He believes if the global markets are truly free then all US manufacturing and jobs will return because the US is great. They will probably need a degree of govt support and his advisors want to bring back strategic industries. Many companies and industries are sucking up to Trump and his ego and this is a major weakness of his that he can be manipulated this way. Whilst there may be objective measures of where diversification of supply chains are necessary, it is unclear which strategic industries should be onshored and many people have their hands out.
- Getting rid of income tax is a true instance of simplifying complex advice into a headline grabbing sound byte. Having a massive capital account deficit and massive government deficit, increase capital costs and inflation pressures, these are a 'hidden' tax on people in a country. Additionally long term allowing all wealth to be extracted means per capita GDP declines as well, which is effectively a tax on low and middle income earners. This is difficult to explain to voters, and probably Trump to be honest so it was pivoted to reducing income tax which does put his opposition into the wedge position of potentially having to oppose income tax reductions. Eliminating income tax is unrealistic but if they could reduce the deficit by a trillion and the CAD by 50% then it is realistic when Elon said they could drop income tax by 20% of what it currently is, eg 32% down to 26%.
- Most commentators believe he should transition away from his Apprentice / comedian character to even just being more like himself, however he is probably too butt hurt on certain topics to do that. 'At least he is generating content I can farm and mine forever" Asmongold
-Also if you go back to his 90s statements and manifesto he was primarily fixated on Japan in the 80s, and then China in the 90s. So its not like his a visionary on global trade. He believes if the US is losing, therefore someone must have a better deal.
This post has been edited by EsotericSatire: Apr 15 2025, 10:23