[X] My Assistant

Game 4 Results

Total valid guesses: 60
Average valid guess: 76.5001202
Total troll or clueless guesses (not included in average): 11 (average of these: 327)
Number of bonus guesses: 12
Total pot: 1000k + 120k + 100k (courtesy of Killer Bee1)

2/3 of Average Guess: 51.00008

Winner 1: ginjok, with a guess of 49.8
Winner 2: Kiriman1, with a guess of 55
Winner 3: Superlatanium, with a guess of 47 oops
Winner 3: Basara Nekki, with a guess of 44
Winner 4: Killer Bee1, with a guess of 43

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Transparency: I considered the following guesses to be too high or too low to be serious, either due to deliberate trolling, or due to misunderstanding of how this works. If you're on this list and didn't intend to be, don't worry, if you want to guess again, just look at how things are going and think about what the general range a winning guess would be, and guess within that range.

(Here's a very big hint: The new winning number will always be lower than the old winning number. This game's winning number was around 51, so what would a realistic guess be now?)

CODE

jinrongjia     526
Innocent_Preach     198
piyin     412
tatarime     200
manmangaz     588
ankwchi     468
hgsmxhh     213
vivikinomoto123     222.2
japidura     225
TopGun22     366.6
SStwins     178

This is a list of valid guesses:

CODE

47
85
14.796
120
88
137
111
80
36.863
70
110
41
69
77
109.62
139
104
88
39
109.3
88.88
130.2
103
86
91
42
69.23
66.78901
73
68
96
71.77
35
61.39938
60
75
73.27
69.31
135
69.5
79
55
92.83789
61.89193
15.6
43
28
112
98
70
80
63.7
121
97.5
44
38
49.8
68
69
63.75

The lowest invalid guess I removed was 178. The highest valid guess I included was 139. There were no numbers in between, so it made for a pretty clear dividing line.

This post has been edited by Superlatanium: Jan 1 2017, 03:12

Game 4 Results

wonder what the results would be if the 2/3 was replaced with a random value around 1 that was either stated or hidden at the start of each round.

This is really turning into a game of guessing which numbers you will exclude. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

This is really turning into a game of guessing which numbers you will exclude. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

He will exclude numbers higher than the last winning number.
That's how the game works anyway if everybody is trying to win.

This time I'll put my autolose now: My guess is 21 (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

my number is 19

PM sent~

He will exclude numbers higher than the last winning number.
That's how the game works anyway if everybody is trying to win.

Yeah, except it was different the previous game. Game 2 winning number was 242 and guesses much higher than that were still considered valid in game 3. Maybe it will somehow change again next game.

This is really turning into a game of guessing which numbers you will exclude. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

That's the game I'm playing (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

Yes,I think you may make a clear dividing line before game starts.

News flash: Super is sadistic (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

Another news flash: something is saying me that Super is going to delete every entry > 51.
So post numbers lower than 34! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

777

This is really turning into a game of guessing which numbers you will exclude. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

Yeah, it sucks. Unfortunately, given the number of people that either don't understand or are trying to troll, doing that is the only way to make this game approach what it's theoretically intended to be.

(well, one way would be to make this into a zero-sum game and make everyone pay to participate, but that's not good for what's supposed to be something at least kinda fun)

He will exclude numbers higher than the last winning number.
That's how the game works anyway if everybody is trying to win.

That worked in the past, ("I should at least guess lower than the last winning number") but by now, everyone should know that they should be trying to think at least one step ahead

("I should at least guess lower than 2/3 of the last winning number")

and are hopefully thinking at least two steps ahead

("most people will think at least one step ahead and will guess somewhat lower than ~2/3 of the last winning number, so I should guess lower than ~4/9 of the last winning number")

or three steps ahead

("most people will think at least one step ahead and will guess ~2/3 of the last winning number, so I should guess somewhat lower than ~4/9 of the last winning number - and to account for the handful who are thinking on this level as well, I should lower my guess even further")

(note: those who followed that thought process above were those who were close to the winning range of the last game. My wild guess is that the winners of this next game will be 4 steps ahead or more)

What's the dividing line between someone who just doesn't quite get it by now and someone who's intentionally trying to screw with things? It varies with each game, and no matter what's chosen, someone's going to benefit and someone's going to be screwed as a result.

But I probably shouldn't take this so seriously, all it is is a game for free money (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

News flash: Super is sadistic (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

After reading what I just typed above...

hmmm, you may have a point.

This time I'll put my autolose now: My guess is 21 (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

You might note that my guess in this last game was serious, and that it was the first guess of the game, and was public - and I (would have) gotten to winner #3. (#2 if I had excluded Dammon, which I should have)

But most people are really starting to get the hang of this by now. Previously, you had to think about 1 step of everyone else to get close to the winning value. By now, everyone knows that they have to try to think some steps ahead of everyone else, and it turns into a vicious cycle of trying to predict how many steps ahead you think everyone else will think.

Put another way: last time, the winning number was 37% of the last winning number, from 139.256834 to 51. But now people are reacting more to everyone else thinking ahead and will likely reduce it even more. 51 * 37% = 18.87. New winning number will certainly be less than that.

I will guess 9, which is 17.6% of the last winning number.

Yes, I know that by publicly guessing so low myself I'm at least moderately affecting the outcome, but that's part of the fun (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

PM sent

I put my guess in 23.3333 (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

Guess: 17.5

News flash: Super is sadistic (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

Me, after watching this, I tend to think Super is at least as much masochistic.

Cool, I won again! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif) (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

Thank you very much and a Happy New Year!

MM sent with Guess + Bonus Guess

Character: Chris Yukine (Symphogear)

(IMG:[2.bp.blogspot.com] http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-t9SEL2bO4nE/Vln8LL_XedI/AAAAAAAAAls/ivCJ8tY3_Y4/s1600/Cover.jpg)

MM sent (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)