[X] My Assistant

In my experience, the market for equipment is quite volatile. That means: not stable. The prices can seriously drop or rise in a couple of months. A formula would be a very rough estimate. Not fit for determining real value for expensive items. You are free to try, but I don't believe in it.

Low-value to medium-value utility equipment is basically linear because of the large supply and demand. The formula can be more precise and saves a lot of time.
But when the supply and demand relationship is not balanced, the transaction price often depends on the specific transaction.

I don't think that would be solve by formola either, even humen experience is not that solid.

You seem to know nothing about the rapier market.
Any rapier recently reach 6m+ is demonic/hallowed. Ethereal is bullshit when it comes to 1H, but people still like ethereal. Elementals are trash even when they have good status except for arctic

Now I'll pray for you so Santa's arctic one with shitty parry would sell for 10m. It's just a matter of time I would try to believe in it.

If it's peerless quality, and demonic/hallowed will always get good bids because they are collections for rich players. Not for use.

Rapiers are one of the few equipment classes that I have followed closely for quite some time. I believe I know their pricing ranges very well. I have seen plenty of high damage legendary rapiers sell for 10m with whatever prefix over the last year. Most of those were listed in shops or elsewhere and can't be searched anymore. Even more were kept by the original owner no matter what offer he got.

Don't forget that auctions have a lot of randomness. The price trends of rapiers likewise fluctuates with time. These selected auction examples of your choice do not prove your pricing beliefs. I'm not surprised at any of those results. Some of them were better deals than others.

I also happen to know what rapiers most people own and use, because I am such a nosy spy. I know what rapier you use and how much you paid (great deal) and I might know what rapier all the buyers in the auctions you just listed use, even when it is not the one in that auction. I knew what decondelite uses before he had mentioned it.

I'll restate that I am only saying what I observe, not what I believe should be the case. I won't say my personal opinion on ethereal here, but I agree that ethereal confuses the market because some buyers still like it. Furthermore, ethereal lowers the preference on demonic/hallowed and psychologically encourages people to accept undesirable elements.

Santa could sell his rapier for 10m but it may take a really long time, it wouldn't be a bad idea for him to lower it to 5m to 8m if he wants.

I agree, it's too bad that many of the useful melee peerless equipments end up as wasted collection for the ultra rich players who don't even use them. Some are also not used for other reasons. It shouldn't be that way. All the best rapiers I know of have never been used.

Rapiers are one of the few equipment classes that I have followed closely for quite some time. I believe I know their pricing ranges very well. I have seen plenty of high damage legendary rapiers sell for 10m with whatever prefix over the last year. Most of those were listed in shops or elsewhere and can't be searched anymore. Even more were kept by the original owner no matter what offer he got.

Don't forget that auctions have a lot of randomness. The price trends of rapiers likewise fluctuates with time. These selected auction examples of your choice do not prove your pricing beliefs. I'm not surprised at any of those results. Some of them were better deals than others.

Santa could sell his rapier for 10m but it may take a really long time, it wouldn't be a bad idea for him to lower it to 5m to 8m if he wants.

I'm not going to waste time discussing this with you. If you want your estimations to be objective, you want to convince others, and you want to make price checks that indeed help others, give me an example an elemental rapier reaches 10m recently. Or maybe 8m, 6m. If there hasn't been any, or it's getting less and less, then you estimation is wrong. That's it. You thought peerless savage slaughter boots wouldn't worth that much, but sry the market and rich players decide. Not you.
Sure there is randomness. Then learn about variance, standard deviation. Bring us an example which an elemental rapier with good ADB but low Parry gets 10m recently. Not the price listed in some greedy shops, not an example 1 year ago.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
It's your freedom to say whatever you want. But this is the price check. People want reliable estimations and records that are worth for reference, not your opinion that you think is right.
Back when I was lv300 or so, some players would still pay 5m or a bit more for an decent low-level rapier. Now those rapier barely reach 3m.

This post has been edited by -vincento-: Aug 17 2018, 12:26

is that Ethereal Battlecaster make no sense?
even as a DW second hand?

is that Ethereal Battlecaster make no sense?
even as a DW second hand?

Yeah, that's an unfortunate combination.

Magnificent Jade Cotton Pants of the Demon-fiend

Magnificent Jade Cotton Pants of the Demon-fiend

seems low value, just my opinion
Magnificent Jade Cotton Pants of the Demon-fiend [Lv.410(AIW),FP:26,I:14,W:-53,A:-40,E:-56,Pm:-37] [Value:-38(372)] [Dark:3] H300=-52;Magi=-24;AIW=-4;Magi=-4;AIW=-4;min=20; {"lv":"-696.% ","Magi":"478.2% ","AIW":"318.5% "} [Start:20k][Quick:30k] -3.546099290780142
+410/-38

Magnificent Jade Cotton Pants of the Demon-fiend

hgc

I'm not going to waste time discussing this with you. If you want your estimations to be objective, you want to convince others, and you want to make price checks that indeed help others, give me an example an elemental rapier reaches 10m recently

Sure there is randomness. Then learn about variance, standard deviation. Bring us an example which an elemental rapier with good ADB but low Parry gets 10m recently. Not the price listed in some greedy shops, not an example 1 year ago.

Back when I was lv300 or so, some players would still pay 5m or a bit more for an decent low-level rapier. Now those rapier barely reach 3m.

I don't need to discuss this with you either, but I think it helps everyone. I saw at least two shocking and two ethereal rapiers sell for 10m. I have exact links for some of them, but I don't want or need to show you. In some shop cases the proof of sale price has been erased. I also observed the price of many lesser rapiers and still, the price is reasonably consistent regardless of element.

I agree that rapiers are on a current downslide, though this doesn't seem to hold for the top tier ones. At one point I checked ancient historical rapier prices and it went up and down a lot, but overall didn't vary as much as some people would say. In other words, the typical prices could recover back to last year anytime. You must allow 1 year ago because 95% adb is rare.

I have similar feelings to you about greedy shops, but truthfully we have to consider them. Very expensive items of both very high level (500) and very low level (200) take a long time to sell. The regular auctions are not a wise place to list them. And don't forget all the invisible rapiers the original owner kept. I have offered 100m for a rapier and been rejected.

If you understood what variance and standard deviation is, then you should know they do not apply to this discussion of randomness. This sort of randomness arises from a different mathematical source. You could say that the standard deviation is so high that it is 3x the mean value, but really the price distribution function itself is not remotely Gaussian.

As much as you are convinced I am wrong on the pricing of rapiers and that you are right, consider that you could be wrong as well. Then consider your behavior and whether or not this is worth arguing over. Pricing is also an opinion because everyone is imperfect at it, as no one can predict the future.

this discussion maxe me glad i'm an axe man. did i say axe man? i meant ass man

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An example only to illustrate a personal situation:

https://forums.e-hentai.org/index.php?s=&am...t&p=4928611

Legendary Fiery Rapier of Balance

This post has been edited by Lunarika: Aug 18 2018, 01:26

Legendary Fiery Rapier of Balance

125k?
my judgement for high level is not that well, maybe you should downcount it a bit.

Legendary Fiery Rapier of Balance

I don't think it's sellable.
The PABs are good, the ADB is good, but the Crit Chance is average at most and the parry is on the low end.
Fiery isn't also that popular.

When I bought mine (roughly 90% on ADB, Crit and Parry), for 50k, nobody outbid me (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

[One07] Legendary Fiery Rapier of Balance (500, ADB 91%, Parry 91%) (seller: morineko) ppp82p 50k Proxy bid after #39

You could still sell it for 50k on auction tho.
Making some research showed me that some of those got sold...but roughly the same number went unsold.

You must allow 1 year ago because 95% adb is rare.

95% Adb is rare? Not considering the prefix rolls and parry rolls.
I can get you one right now in this week's auction.
[One03] Legendary Shocking Rapier of Slaughter (500, ADB 98%) (seller: hc br) calamarain 400k #83

I saw at least two shocking and two ethereal rapiers sell for 10m.

Ethereal is not elementals btw. They are special. And I wonder if these bids were with high adb, but low parry as you have claimed

You must allow 1 year ago

Let me make it more clear why I don't give a shit about examples one year ago. It's a very obvious trend that people start to switch to mages before they even reach lv400. Because it was when 0.85 patch kicked in and nerfed all the high-level melees. Since I didn't make it clear why more and more players are playing mages in the last few posts, I'm coming again to waste my time. Any example that is from auctions years ago is not reliable data because of the new patches.

If you understood what variance and standard deviation is, then you should know they do not apply to this discussion of randomness.

If you understand the intention of price check, then you should not bring an example that is out of 3 standard deviation. At least be close to an average price, or a medium price.

In other words, the typical prices could recover back to last year anytime.

Sure there is possibility that 10boro buffs melees, but that's not what you should consider here when you don't have any reliable evidence.

Pricing is also an opinion because everyone is imperfect at it, as no one can predict the future.

There is an extent. If you are just making excuses, like you could be right even if it's less than 1% possibility. Like they might get sold in the future, maybe in 5 years. You are just being stubborn....I am being serious because you thought you had enough experience but you are just misleading some players here, and spamming your random thoughts. You are free to think whatever you want, but be diligent when you are affecting other players.

I don't think you understood my mathematical explanation of why there may not be a valid concept of an average price or standard deviation for pricing in this game. I don't know if this is due to your level of math education or english fluency.

A bit random distribution does not mean that average price and other parameters are not worth for reference. If these parameters does not work, then your observations over the years become even more worthless. At least these data could be more authentic than your personal opinions. Also stop distracting anyone here from your original arugments that parry and prefix does not matter, and that players only care about ADB. Be a logical person so others can understand what your main points are, instead of spamming random thoughts, as I mentioned.

For now I'll stick with my earlier pricing range estimates, and you stick with yours. It doesn't bother me that we have different pricing opinions. If it bothers you, too bad.

It does not bother me it bothers other players who come here to get authentic information. If the shocking rapiers this week ends up like they are now, then your arguments that parry does not matter, that demonic/hallowed are not what players care about, as for the current market, are becoming pretty worthless. These arguments are not appropriate, in other words, wrong. Go ahead and bump the price.

This post has been edited by -vincento-: Aug 18 2018, 08:02

Hmm, there are two almost identical shocking rapiers except one has peerless damage, and the other has peerless parry. And the peerless parry one is currently 3m while the peerless damage one is 400k. If these prices hold this reinforces your claim that parry matters for pricing (neutral regarding your claim for element).

I think the 0.85 patch supposedly did not affect high-level players of any style, it mainly buffed low-level players.

I don't think you understood my mathematical explanation of why there may not be a valid concept of an average price or standard deviation for pricing in this game. I don't know if this is due to your level of math education or english fluency. I can try to explain it again in simpler terms if you are still interested.

For now I'll stick with my earlier pricing range estimates, and you stick with yours. It doesn't bother me that we have different pricing opinions. If it bothers you, too bad.

Hmm, there are two almost identical shocking rapiers except one has peerless damage, and the other has peerless parry. And the peerless parry one is currently 3m while the peerless damage one is 400k.

496, ADB 91%, Parry 98%, Str 91%, Dex 22%, Agi 91%, Attack Crit Chance 4% (Current bid: 5000k)
500, ADB 98%, Parry 57%, Str 70%, Dex 40%, Agi 37%, Attack Crit Chance 99% (Current bid: 750k)
The peerless parry rapier also have nearly peerless damage while peerless damage rapier only has so-so parry. So parry should matter, as well as other stats.

I don't think you understood my mathematical explanation of why there may not be a valid concept of an average price or standard deviation for pricing in this game. I don't know if this is due to your level of math education or english fluency. I can try to explain it again in simpler terms if you are still interested.

Is there a need to talk like this?

Edit
To keep post in topic Just found this, that I don't even remember I got such a drop, in my inventory. Price check please.

This post has been edited by monkey_lmf: Aug 18 2018, 10:45

To keep post in topic Just found this, that I don't even remember I got such a drop, in my inventory. Price check please.

3-5m easily. Maybe more because of low level.

3-5m easily. Maybe more because of low level.

OHHH that's nice. Thank you. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/happy.gif)

Still that much salt in this thread huh?
Whatever, this thread is designed to be salty anyway. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/mellow.gif)

My one-and-a-half cent regarding the rapier topic (because two cents is already too much): dropping rapiers is absolutely useless beyond Lvl450, because by the time he reaches Lvl350, a player will already be owning his legendary not-necessarily-optimal-but-most-likely-last rapier because he'll switch to mage by the time he gets to Lvl400.
Once you understood that, you pretty much understood everything regarding the rapier market.

@BWS:
Just to be curious, for the lolz and to test your spy skills. Do you even know what rapier I use? Or what rapiers I own? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ph34r.gif)

@sicken:
And I'm glad being a shortsword man for the same kind of reasons. A cookie cutter man.