[X] My Assistant

With or without the Hath Perk? Forgot to mention I have Dark Descent.

yeah without doing the math, in my experience everything below 200 amnesias (with DD) is good

Today's SPL clear bonus is 3 legendary armor cores.

You gain 1000 Credits!
You gain 0.001 points of heavy armor proficiency.
You gain 0.001 points of one-handed weapon proficiency.
You gain 151799698 EXP!
Arena Token Bonus! [Chaos Token]
Battle Clear Bonus! [Legendary Jade Plate Sabatons of Warding]
Battle Clear Bonus! [Legendary Cobalt Leather Gauntlets of Deflection]
Battle Clear Bonus! [Legendary Cobalt Leather Helmet of Warding]
Pinkie Pie dropped [Health Draught]
Angel Bunny dropped [30x Crystal of Swiftness]
Twilight Sparkle dropped [Spirit Draught]
Spike dropped [Exquisite Power Helmet of Warding]
A traveling salesmoogle gives you [2775 Credits] for it.
Rarity dropped [Monster Chow]
Applejack dropped [Spirit Draught]
Gummy dropped [Mana Draught]
Rainbow Dash dropped [Superior Plate Helmet of Protection]
A traveling salesmoogle gives you [385 Credits] for it.
Fluttershy dropped [Exquisite Leather Breastplate of Dampening]
A traveling salesmoogle gives you [824 Credits] for it.
You are Victorious!

yeah without doing the math, in my experience everything below 200 amnesias (with DD) is good

This one actually got me interested in calculating actual average value of needed shards to get p5s4 (and stamina). Realising that pure math is too complicated for my grasp, I decided to go another way, I wrote some code in pascal (with what I remember from school long ago lol) and just bruteforce shitload simulations of getting p5s4 and then just calculating average.
Hardcoded conditions:
- For stamina usage calculatiuon, 1st run goes to IW2, 2nd to IW4, 3rd to IW5, 4th to IW6, 5th to IW7, 6th-7th to IW8, 8th-10th to IW9 and it stops on that (lurked some old IW service logs, these are values for average legendary staffs, not peerless, for peerless may vary)
- whenever you get any potency other than penetrator or spellweaver - reforge (obv)
- whenever you get p0s4 or p1s4 or p2s4 - reforge (hitting 3-5 penetrators in a row without hitting s5 or third potency seems too low chance to even bother continuing, maybe p2s4 is a bit harsh, lmk, might change that in code)
So, here are the results for 100K simulations (for both having Dark Descent perk or not)
(IMG:[cdn.discordapp.com] https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/561943851124785162/1171540778875637821/p5s4.jpg?ex=655d0d5f&is=654a985f&hm=0c6fc48e17fcd2ea80c68e977c195a49c63be331def43f1cfb31ab7e7e1701d3&)
There were obviously outliers with almost instant success and like 1.5k shard usage on the other side, but in the long run averaged to these numbers.
Edit: wanted to do median values, but too exhausted today already, maybe on another day. =(

This post has been edited by uchimatan: Nov 7 2023, 22:09

So your answer is 151 average shards, but the reforging tactics are not guaranteed to be correct. You reforge with p2s4, but what about p5s0?

Personally, my strange luck has resulted in me often getting a5b5 when I had a5b0. This is supposed to happen 1/16 amount of the time, but for me it happens like 1/8 the time.

Since I assume this simulation can be rerun very quickly, why don't you just do lots of simulations using different reforging strategies, and post the answer for each one? In particular you should post the result for using the default strategy (reforge only if you've failed).

This post has been edited by BlueWaterSplash: Nov 7 2023, 23:43

Hm, I guess I could do that, will post tomorrow at the same time ±
Comparing different strategies is indeed interesting to see, didn't think about that at first.
It indeed reruns quite quickly, changing code however is not (at least for me (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif) not that good at this)
Btw, getting x5y5 after x5y0 is not 1/16, in fact, it's quite higher, since when you have 2 potencies, chance to get third are 25%, and to upgrade existing one is 75% (at least wiki says so)
0.75^4=0.3164

Hmm good point, in that situation it may not work like I thought, then. Do we have proof (or a clearly stated explanation from Tenboro) of how this a5b0 situation works?

I worked through the probabilities in the past for staff IW. With a basic strategy of never reforging until it's impossible to get p5s4, I got an expected shard use of 146 with 168 IW runs. Reforging at p0s4 reduces those numbers to 144 and 165. Also reforging at p1s4 slightly increases the numbers again to 146 and 166. Reforging at p2s4 too increases the numbers to 151 and 170.

Since a focus staff can't get economizer, it's much easier to IW. 87 average shards with 106 IW runs using the strategy of reforge at p0s2.

Same:

CODE

//  Simulator args - pxp0, potency pool size, IW level goal, potency 1 level goal, potency 2 level goal
// simulate arg - iterations (items to complete, not total runs)

>>sim = Simulator(371, 5, 9, 5, 4)

>>sim.simulate(1000)
1000 IWs complete.
104 average IWBTH runs
141 average PFUDOR runs
103 average resets
162 average shards

>>sim.simulate(10000)
10000 IWs complete.
107 average IWBTH runs
148 average PFUDOR runs
106 average resets
168 average shards

For some comparisons, J5, and J5C5:

CODE

// J5
>>arm_sim1 = Simulator(377, 8, 10, 5)
>>arm_sim1.simulate(10000)
10000 IWs complete.
12 average IWBTH runs
17 average PFUDOR runs
11 average resets
15 average shards


// J5 C5
>>arm_sim2 = Simulator(377, 8, 10, 5, 5)
>>arm_sim2.simulate(10000)
10000 IWs complete.
204 average IWBTH runs
147 average PFUDOR runs
203 average resets
264 average shards

This post has been edited by Nezu: Nov 8 2023, 05:08

Why are Nezu's results a bit different from mathl33t and uchimatan's? (who got the exact same result, despite uchimatan using brute force simulation compared to mathl33t using brute force math)

Perhaps the model was different? As I consider my a5b0 question maybe not definitively answered yet.

Since a focus staff can't get economizer, it's much easier to IW. 87 average shards with 106 IW runs using the strategy of reforge at p0s2.

Did you mean to say p0s2, or p0s4?

Perhaps the model was different? As I consider my a5b0 question maybe not definitively answered yet.
Did you mean to say p0s2, or p0s4?

p0s2. The lack of economizer changes things that much.

FInallly had the timeto sell everyhing at the market which i do not need and gotten 200 k for it yay

Well, even though mathl33t already provided accurate numbers, still wanted to do what I promised to do myself, and checked several other reforge conditions, also added median values

but what about p5s0?

Looks like reforging p5s0 is a bad idea overall, didn't even do p5s0+p0s4+p1s4+p2s4 since it will just be worse considering previous iterations.

(IMG:[cdn.discordapp.com] https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1160332493354971146/1171875911994454046/p5s4_condition_variations.jpg?ex=655e457d&is=654bd07d&hm=ed3f6d502feece246b533be459a0ece7bb821178339399f40fb2471f3c38c377&)

I won 18 Chaos Tokens from the November 11th Armor Lottery: You hold 1 of 17519 sold tickets.

Nice one (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cool.gif)

Previous Lottery win was on February 6th.

Realized I've been savaging my chances to get in noni event

Reached for the stars and became destitute. DD ladder next. Well, one day, maybe.
Now I can retire in peace take a long break from HV.

Now I can retire in peace take a long break from HV.

not until you hit level 500, let the grind begin

not until you hit level 500, let the grind begin

Of course. This site better not die before I reach lv 500 in, uh... (500-459=41, 365/20=18.25, 41/18.25=2.25, 2.25*12=27)

27 months!

EDIT: Played some HV today and was surprised by the EXP boost. Getting 80m+ EXP from an RE is something I can really get used to.

This post has been edited by amaimono: Nov 14 2023, 09:35

25% of 500. Almost there... (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/dry.gif)
And prof factor reliably over 0.99, though that last cent will take some time.

It was really a decent choice to do cap+gloves for prof as the guide recommended, not just because the other slots were a lot more expensive, which may have impacted my decision x)

I still have the objective to clear some Ifests some day, it's just incredibly not worth it for me so far. Selling the ED is 10x more profitable than the Ifest, even if I don't get the exp.

This post has been edited by Byza: Nov 16 2023, 12:51

Of course. This site better not die before I reach lv 500 in, uh... (500-459=41, 365/20=18.25, 41/18.25=2.25, 2.25*12=27)

27 months!

EDIT: Played some HV today and was surprised by the EXP boost. Getting 80m+ EXP from an RE is something I can really get used to.

27 months is surprisingly short, or maybe I'm just old now.

I just got a Riddlemaster with 2 Twilight Sparkle and 2 Pinkie Pie. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/blink.gif)