[X] My Assistant

15 PA shrined.

Results :

0 (ZERO!) EDs

1 Elixir

2 Xtals

3 Haths

9 PABS points !?!

Some skewed distribution, that is ...

Ok, Pabs ... but I'd have preferred at least a couple EDs in truth ....

if you want good statistics, shrine 10000 PA's

...

How far behind were you on your PABs? The more you have to get, the higher the chance (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

if you want good statistics, shrine 10000 PA's

Sure, send them over and I'll do (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif) (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

How far behind were you on your PABs? The more you have to get, the higher the chance (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

I know. But I was higher then 50% in everyone except INT, most where already 20 (since I'm lv.344, my current max is 34).
The lowest one is INT @14, second lowest DEX @18.
That's why I was hoping for some EDs too (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cry.gif)

EDIT : but today I've got a Phazon gift from my lab, that makes me a little less sad (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cool.gif)

Ed-2 : What a mess I did, with these posts !! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

This post has been edited by mundomuñeca: May 16 2020, 13:59

Sure, send them over and I'll do (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif) (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)
I know. But I was higher then 50% in everyone except INT, most where already 20 (since I'm lv.344, my current max is 34).
The lowest one is INT @14, second lowest DEX @18.
That's why I was hoping for some EDs too (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cry.gif)

EDIT : but today I've got a Phazon gift from my lab, that makes me a little less sad (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cool.gif)

Ed-2 : What a mess I did, with these posts !! (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

20/34? Yeah, _waaaaaaaaay_ behind (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

I believe when there's 1 left the chance is something like 1 in 100, so using a sampling without replacement method, if you have 20/34 in each PAB you're looking at something like 84/184 chance (reducing by 1 on each side for every PAB you pick up), with the remaining chances being left for the normal loot...

With that, you'd have a 20/184 chance of EDs, so not too surprising you got 0 EDs in 15.

Hell, I've gone >50 without any EDs before, and that's at full PABs for a long time (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif) But I've also shrined >45k PAs now so it's not surprising I'd run into some shitty (and amazing) luck pockets in that time...

This post has been edited by lestion: May 16 2020, 14:09

20/34? Yeah, _waaaaaaaaay_ behind (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

I believe when there's 1 left the chance is something like 1 in 100, so using a sampling without replacement method, if you have 20/34 in each PAB you're looking at something like 84/184 chance (reducing by 1 on each side for every PAB you pick up), with the remaining chances being left for the normal loot...

With that, you'd have a 20/184 chance of EDs, so not too surprising you got 0 EDs in 15.

Hell, I've gone >50 without any EDs before, and that's at full PABs for a long time (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif) But I've also shrined >45k PAs now so it's not surprising I'd run into some shitty (and amazing) luck pockets in that time...

I don't think the algo works like that, actually ... after all, we can only observe the outcomes of the "extractions", and not even the consecutives one (what seems consecutive to a player shrinings his PAs, can very well be mixed up with the concurrent extractions for other players from the algo's point of you).
So estimating the kind of statistical distribution the algo is using, by what a single player observes in his shrining, is something I wouldn't even begin to do since it seems to me a bit pointless and prone to all sorts of misleading beliefs (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ph34r.gif)

That said, I'm aware that short runs (and even 300-400 count as short runs, indeed) can exhibit huge anomalies ... I was simply whining that anomalies always go in all directions, exceot the one you could be happy with (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/anime_cry.gif)

...

Ah, it's just a common implementation for weighted probability tables in programming... I can't say for sure that's how it works, but it would be a pretty simple way to produce the PAB distribution we currently have (especially since it seems to be based on how many you're missing, not your level).

Yes, Snowflake is a harsh mistress...

This post has been edited by lestion: May 16 2020, 19:46

Still didn't get balanced fun/speed/reward/difficulty balance (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/smile.gif) but I only play a couple of month...
Level 306 1H, and a bit slow - only a week ago got an idea to look up hath perks...

Sakura Matou has been defeated.
Paradise Lost blasts Sakura Matou for 98925 holy damage

Girl, I'm a dark mage with 0% Holy EDB, and no radiants. That was only supposed to inflict you with Breached Defense. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/unsure.gif)

For the first time since March 11th, I didn't clear all arenas. I've got crunch time ahead at work, 12-14 hours a day for three weeks with one or two days off in the middle. At least the pay is good.

Got 0 out of 11 remaining PAB bonuses. I guess it's under 1% chance now (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)

Precursor Artifact (80/80)
18.8 % [15] Energy Drink
21.3 % [17] 2 Hath
16.3 % [13] Last Elixir
43.8 % [35] 1000x Crystal

I've shrined well over 300 PAs since I've been at 299/300 PABs, and that last one still eludes my grip (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/mad.gif)

Girl, I'm a dark mage with 0% Holy EDB, and no radiants. That was only supposed to inflict you with Breached Defense. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/unsure.gif)

She was beaten just like if your name was Shinji Matou (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

RE : Who Is Next dropped [Fluffle Puff Figurine]

It was quite a lot of time since my last figurine drop ....

DWD - 1,311 turns 0:09:54 (2.207 t/s) 2 riddles

You have reached Level 499!

Level 499 from RE. It has been a long time since I saw a level up message after a round. One more to go (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cool.gif)

You have reached Level 499!

Level 499 from RE. It has been a long time since I saw a level up message after a round. One more to go (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cool.gif)

Dawn of day really helps

Dawn of day really helps

It really does. That's the main reason why I haven't seen level up messages for ages, as I usually level up from Dawn bonuses. I actually thought I would never reach 500, but seems like it might happen after all, mostly thanks to Dawn bonuses.

Prof factor 1.0. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/happy.gif)

Oh, and i did just notice i am able to clear on common day both arena pages in under two hours. While at the same time a PFest is something i can only dream of.

Trumpet dropped [Precursor Artifact]
Darksoul dropped [Precursor Artifact]
Double artifact drop in 1 RE. First time happening to me so it was a fun little thing to see.

At long, very long, last. My mage set is finally full forged. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/happy.gif)

view a forum filled with english,which is hard for me (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/unsure.gif)

Maxed Faster Imperil.

This post has been edited by dibdib: May 19 2020, 16:19

Ability Boost 250/500
They've just started costing more than 100kC per level.