[X] My Assistant

People live with the illusion that having 5000 tickets out of 10000 is 50% chance to win.
But the truth is that you have 5000 chances to lose (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/duck.gif)

Nice. I wonder how much those 15 Chaos Tokens cost you, though (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/unsure.gif)

Did not you see it in the picture? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/huh.gif) There were only 10 tickets (approximately 2500 credits). (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

If you don't product GP and must buy GP to take part in, then don't waste Credits in the Lottery.

this.

People live with the illusion that having 5000 tickets out of 10000 is 50% chance to win.
But the truth is that you have 5000 chances to lose (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/duck.gif)

and this.

1)most likely: just my terrible luck, i totally need more tries to draw any conclusions, i know.

It just means that the people who won got lucky and only held a small number of tickets hence your chances of winning didn't increase all that much after each prize got given out.

Most of the time 10-20% of total pool is enough to win a prize as most of the winners would hold similar portion of the total number of tickets.

don't get roadshoe started on his amount of lost lotteries (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif) he has quite a history

Most of the time 10-20% of total pool is enough to win a prize as most of the winners would hold similar portion of the total number of tickets.

Thanks, thats exactly what one would expect, and, if your personl experience confirms that, then i guess i just overreacted a little, forgive me.

To everyone else: thanks for replies, but I'm aware of risks i'm taking, and i know how probabilities work and all the fallacies that could be in play. I also want to point out that participating in the lotteries is not matter of price or cost-effectiveness, its a matter of supply: if that stuff there could be easily found on auctions or shops, i'd happily bought it. What i'm interested in is your experience with lotteries, especially your bidding strats, if thats not a secret (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/ph34r.gif) , and, if that produced better or worse return than expected just from ticket ratio?

This post has been edited by quitetanky: Apr 19 2018, 01:56

People live with the illusion that having 5000 tickets out of 10000 is 50% chance to win.
But the truth is that you have 5000 chances to lose (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/duck.gif)

Actually it's even less than 5000 chances out of 10000, if another player used a GLT.

Actually it's even less than 5000 chances out of 10000, if another player used a GLT.

Did you mean more? I'm talking about chances to lose (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

If people use GLT the effective ticket count raises, and so your odds to lose.

Slot 79 unlocked, 4614 (40%) tokens left

80th slot unlocked, 4426 (38.7%) left

This post has been edited by as013: Apr 19 2018, 12:29

Did not you see it in the picture? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/huh.gif) There were only 10 tickets (approximately 2500 credits). (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)

I saw, but what I was thinking about was the total sum cost of previously lost lotteries before winning this 15 tokens (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

Edit: Accomplishment of the day.
Bought a Pinkie Pie Figurine from AS013 (thanks alot). Now I have the full collection of 27 ponies (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/smile.gif)

This post has been edited by mundomuñeca: Apr 19 2018, 13:58

I saw, but what I was thinking about was the total sum cost of previously lost lotteries before winning this 15 tokens (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/wink.gif)

Ah, now I understand. (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/heh.gif)

Unfortunately I never wrote down this type of information. But basically I usually put 10 tickets in each lottery, and this a few months ago (before it was only 1). In the lotteries whose equipment interested me I put between 100 and 1000.

The most I've ever spent was 4,000 tickets at a time (out of a total of 24,000)(and I did not get anything (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cry.gif) ).

dropping, accidentally, a ice cream xd

You currently have 59.14 Hath.
Hath Perk Tokenizer III Activated!

400
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New DwD record. Not bad (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/dry.gif)
with all same equipments

Dreamt that I won 53 Chaos Tokens in the lottery today...

Was so vivid that I was a bit shocked I didn't have them when I checked just now.

400
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A big congrats!

Have yet to find the time to sit down and figure out the scripts.
Maybe today

(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/dry.gif)

Have yet to find the time to sit down and figure out the scripts.
Maybe today

(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/dry.gif)

it's not that hard. And you can ask for help in Ask the Expert thread or in the specific thread for that script. It will save you time on HV, for sure.

start again...