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So everytime a legendary drops on someone's hands, there's been a little miracle in the world.
So what are the chances of getting a legendary agile leather when you get an equipment for example?

I'm asking cause this is the only legendary equip my hands have ever come into contact with and I wonder if I'm prone to get another one, statistically speaking, in my life. (even with your numbers my hopes are still not crushed, you have to try harder)

My numbers are nowhere near accurate, they are all made with assumptions with little basis to them since we have no actual idea what goes into the complete equipment generating process. It also ignores the whole entire weighting process.

But basically, lotd works quite well if you want more high-quality equipment. Q.E.D. (But since it still multiplies the floor normal is ~useless for it)

Empirical tests on, say, the amount of exquisite+s on iwbth when training lotd from 0 to 25 could help - there have been done such for 9-14 with marked increase. (Exquisites because they're rare enough to minimalize the random rolls dropping majority of stuffs in average-fine-superior range yet common enough to not have shoe-size data samples.)

So everytime a legendary drops on someone's hands, there's been a little miracle in the world.
So what are the chances of getting a legendary agile leather when you get an equipment for example?

I'm asking cause this is the only legendary equip my hands have ever come into contact with and I wonder if I'm prone to get another one, statistically speaking, in my life. (even with your numbers my hopes are still not crushed, you have to try harder)

?

My numbers are nowhere near accurate, they are all made with assumptions with little basis to them since we have no actual idea what goes into the complete equipment generating process. It also ignores the whole entire weighting process.

??

But basically, lotd works quite well if you want more high-quality equipment. Q.E.D. (But since it still multiplies the floor normal is ~useless for it)

Empirical tests on, say, the amount of exquisite+s on iwbth when training lotd from 0 to 25 could help - there have been done such for 9-14 with marked increase. (Exquisites because they're rare enough to minimalize the random rolls dropping majority of stuffs in average-fine-superior range yet common enough to not have shoe-size data samples.)

???

...

This explain NOTHING... so let me guess we live in Xanadu but some of us HAVENT noticed it?

Best information for this is empirical, piyin. Why don't you test it yourself(make sure to ignore arena clear bonuses though!)

Best information for this is empirical, piyin. Why don't you test it yourself(make sure to ignore arena clear bonuses though!)

"Empirical evidence is information that justifies a belief in the truth or falsity of an empirical claim. In the empiricist view, one can only claim to have knowledge when one has a true belief based on empirical evidence."

Belief... Hope... crap... so everything posted here about some info is just a matter of beliefs... so everyone lie?
i had the belief that his upgrade was goin to be super... and... Eureka!!! It wasnt as good as a rotten fish... my belief died that day... and that wasnt empirical at all.

This post has been edited by piyin: Jun 22 2013, 09:13

piyin: I have empirical evidence that supports my belief that whenever I go out at 11 AM the sky above the clouds will be blue since it has always been so for all my life. But I suppose something like this could be "Belief... Hope... crap... so everything posted here about some info is just a matter of beliefs... so everyone lie?".

In which case you can't believe anything, as any math that predicts stuff requires you to observe empirical evidence to check if you applied that math to right thing.

Problem is we are not rolling against a fair linear system. The curve that determines q is exponential.

...

If your numbers were anywhere close to the actual ones, there wouldn't be 373 (non-salvaged) legendaries in the last million equipment drops.

First: The stat roll isn't exponential, it's linear. 95th percentile on a 0-200 roll is ~190. The actual *value* applied from the roll has an exponential factor, but not the quality contribution.

Secondly, there is a correction factor for the number of stat rolls. The difference in probability between rolling a legendary on something with few stats and something with many stats is therefore much smaller than you may assume.

piyin: I have empirical evidence that supports my belief that whenever I go out at 11 AM the sky above the clouds will be blue since it has always been so for all my life.

False... the sky isnt blue... is the perception of the human eye that makes it blue (also the reflection of the water in the oceans... i think)... the sky by any means is Dark/Black (or some kind of gamma in that way) because the in expansion universe is "supposed" to be like that... also the part about the "it has always been so for all my life"... so it never gets dark (night come) where you live????... Cool.

This post has been edited by piyin: Jun 22 2013, 09:33

note the "11 AM" part.

and note the "sky" not "space".

But these are semantics. My point still stands. I look up at uncovered sky with my eyes, it is always blue at 11 AM. I don't conclude from this "the sky is black tomorrow", I conclude the sky will be blue to my eyes tomorrow too. My past experiences are big enough data sample that it can use them as empirical evidence to support my claim.

What would you consider sufficient proof then if empirical evidence nor math is good enough for you?

This post has been edited by Lement: Jun 22 2013, 09:48

Just some lucky days or has tenb tweaked the Blood Token Rate a bit? I actually get some now (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

So everytime a legendary drops on someone's hands, there's been a little miracle in the world.
So what are the chances of getting a legendary agile leather when you get an equipment for example?

I'm asking cause this is the only legendary equip my hands have ever come into contact with and I wonder if I'm prone to get another one, statistically speaking, in my life. (even with your numbers my hopes are still not crushed, you have to try harder)

My best guess on having a Legendary piece of equipment or a Pony Figurine drop depends on the following:

1. Snowflake is in a super good mood

2. Blind ass luck

Just some lucky days or has tenb tweaked the Blood Token Rate a bit? I actually get some now (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/biggrin.gif)

must be lucky day

note the "11 AM" part.

and note the "sky" not "space".

But these are semantics. My point still stands. I look up at uncovered sky with my eyes, it is always blue at 11 AM. I don't conclude from this "the sky is black tomorrow", I conclude the sky will be blue to my eyes tomorrow too. My past experiences are big enough data sample that it can use them as empirical evidence to support my claim.

What would you consider sufficient proof then if empirical evidence nor math is good enough for you?

Sky: anything above your head?

So blind knowledge is better than true facts? i bet after every new born is, well, born, he/she has happiness granted (empirical)... but... Oh cruel world!!! guess what? NO (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif) ... the true is that fictional stuff can always be overwhelmed by solid facts, Example: Financial Crisis (like in the 2008), someone is trying to get his money back from the bank, as the bank always "has money" coz they always lend it and give ou credits and stuff... then he learns that the money he lend to the bank was moved out there and invested without his concent and lost... so now this guy know that the bank can make fictional money BECAUSE AS ONLY THE BANK KNOW HOW MUCH MONEY IT HAS, IT CAN MAKE PPL BELIEVE THEY HAVE MORE THAN WHAT THEY REALLY HAVE... so there it comes the credits and crap like that stuff... and there you empirical guessed the bank has money... some known friend used to believe that... now he doesnt... and i think he doesnt even breath (havent seen him since then... wish him good luck but his debt was like 6 zeros long...Dope).

piyin: Since empirical evidence is apparently not good at all for you, what non-empirical evidence do you even have of the crash happening? The only sort of non-empirical evidence that can be conclusively proved is math, with may or may not have necessarily have any bearing on real world. Are there any true facts other than math in your opinion and on what non-empirical evidence do you base this on(and can you bring an example)?

And no, sky is the expanse above the clouds.

This post has been edited by Lement: Jun 22 2013, 17:01

piyin: Since empirical evidence is apparently not good at all for you, what non-empirical evidence do you even have of the crash happening? The only sort of non-empirical evidence that can be conclusively proved is math, with may or may not have necessarily have any bearing on real world. Are there any true facts other than math in your opinion and on what non-empirical evidence do you base this on(and can you bring an example)?

And no, sky is the expanse above the clouds.

1: i never said i have evidence... im just guessing (empirical) something is fishy...

2: the expanse above the clouds... has even more colors than blue... ya know?

So if you use what you observe yourself, what exactly do you have against this?

Best information for this is empirical, piyin. Why don't you test it yourself(make sure to ignore arena clear bonuses though!)

Oh and you once again missed that I said 11 AM

This post has been edited by Lement: Jun 22 2013, 17:10

If your numbers were anywhere close to the actual ones, there wouldn't be 373 (non-salvaged) legendaries in the last million equipment drops.

First: The stat roll isn't exponential, it's linear. 95th percentile on a 0-200 roll is ~190. The actual *value* applied from the roll has an exponential factor, but not the quality contribution.

Secondly, there is a correction factor for the number of stat rolls. The difference in probability between rolling a legendary on something with few stats and something with many stats is therefore much smaller than you may assume.

See, information we did not have. How are we supposed to know or ever figure any part of that out?

This post has been edited by skillchip: Jun 22 2013, 17:16

So if you use what you observe yourself, what exactly do you have against this?

nothing.. just as skillchip just posted: how can you make empirical guests if you dont have every info? like guessing the sky is blue if you are blind... hard if you have never seen the blue color... right?