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post Jun 21 2013, 18:03
Post #4161
Bunker Buster



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QUOTE(Tenboro @ Jun 21 2013, 17:56) *

Only the floor changes, yes. The range is narrowed. But riddle me this. What are the odds of a high roll, say 96 to 100, if you have a:

a) 0-100 range
(IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/cool.gif) 25-100 range

Show your work.

You get a 1.66666% emperical improvement of mag-leg dropping, yes. But the amount of rolls needed to average that kind of renders the chances of that happening really low. You need to roll 96+ pretty much every time in a range of 25-100 and 0-100 to keep that quality, and the odds are still in the 10^-12 range vs the 10^-14 range with 10 stats assuming everything is weighed equally and assuming an average amount of PAB rolls were made. Over the course of 50 million (conservative estimate) equipment drops, you'd start to see a difference, but in the case of actually getting anything really good and telling people what perk to train, it's not worth it unless you play obsessively, and even then it might not be. Basically I'm telling people to save their credits. Is that really a bad thing?

The average drop quality changes from 50 to 62.5, which means you get less catastrophically bad stuff in general. Still mediocre, but at least you're not given minimums with everything.

This post has been edited by Bunker Buster: Jun 21 2013, 18:05
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post Jun 21 2013, 18:06
Post #4162
Tenboro

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QUOTE(Bunker Buster @ Jun 21 2013, 18:03) *
You get a 1.66666% emperical improvement of mag-leg dropping, yes. But the amount of rolls needed to average that kind of renders the chances of that happening really low. You need to roll 96+ pretty much every time in a range of 25-100 and 0-100 to keep that quality, and the odds are still in the 10^-12 range vs the 10^-14 range with 10 stats assuming everything is weighed equally. Over the course of 50 million (conservative estimate) equipment drops, you'd start to see a difference, but in the case of actually getting anything really good and telling people what perk to train, it's not worth it unless you play obsessively, and even then it might not be. Basically I'm telling people to save their credits. Is that really a bad thing?


False. You get a ~1.67 [en.wikipedia.org] PERCENTAGE POINT improvement to the chance for each of those rolls. The chance of rolling 96-100 increases from 5% to 6.67%, which is a 33.3% increase.
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post Jun 21 2013, 18:12
Post #4163
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QUOTE(Tenboro @ Jun 21 2013, 18:06) *

False. You get a ~1.67 [en.wikipedia.org] PERCENTAGE POINT improvement to the chance for each of those rolls. The chance of rolling 96-100 increases from 5% to 6.67%, which is a 33.3% increase.

That's what I meant by "empirical" (a word I'm probably misusing.) You get a 33.3% better chance of getting 5 out of 75 vs. getting 5 out of 100, but it's still astronomically small for the effort needed to put in considering you have to roll that multiple times.

Basically, cotton armor has the best rolls.
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post Jun 21 2013, 18:14
Post #4164
skillchip



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QUOTE(Tenboro @ Jun 21 2013, 16:06) *

False. You get a ~1.67 [en.wikipedia.org] PERCENTAGE POINT improvement to the chance for each of those rolls. The chance of rolling 96-100 increases from 5% to 6.67%, which is a 33.3% increase.


So these are just made up values right? Not reality?
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post Jun 21 2013, 18:57
Post #4165
piyin



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QUOTE(Tenboro @ Jun 21 2013, 19:06) *

False. You get a ~1.67 [en.wikipedia.org] PERCENTAGE POINT improvement to the chance for each of those rolls. The chance of rolling 96-100 increases from 5% to 6.67%, which is a 33.3% increase.


excellent... now if we could have an evidence (something than can be demostrate by facts... real/corporeal/tangible facts) about that... i have my LOTD and Scavenger stuff trained over 75%... NEVER... NEVER have gotten a legendary in any challenge modes in any battle area.... just Bad luck or non realistic stuff
(Example: "oh look... its God!!!!!...." and he was on drugs... can i believe that? )

This post has been edited by piyin: Jun 21 2013, 18:58
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post Jun 21 2013, 19:01
Post #4166
Ichy



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why would he lie?
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post Jun 21 2013, 19:11
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QUOTE(Ichy @ Jun 21 2013, 09:01) *

why would he lie?

This. He likes to omit data, not falsify it.
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post Jun 21 2013, 19:14
Post #4168
piyin



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QUOTE(Ichy @ Jun 21 2013, 20:01) *

why would he lie?


"Hope"... is the cruelest thing on the universe... it make you go on (sometimes)... even if there is Nothing on the end of that path you followed guide by it...

....


so in short... what can he lost if he does?...
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post Jun 21 2013, 19:22
Post #4169
piyin



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QUOTE(Maximum_Joe @ Jun 21 2013, 20:11) *

This. He likes to omit data, not falsify it.


Negligence... i think is a kind of crime... and about falsify info... do you know the fact that REAL comes from the old saying of the Kings?.... so what the KING(Rex/Regis in latin) says is REAL(Regalis) coz he is the ROYALTY?.. do you get it?

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post Jun 21 2013, 19:51
Post #4170
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QUOTE(Bunker Buster @ Jun 21 2013, 23:12) *

That's what I meant by "empirical" (a word I'm probably misusing.) You get a 33.3% better chance of getting 5 out of 75 vs. getting 5 out of 100, but it's still astronomically small for the effort needed to put in considering you have to roll that multiple times.

Basically, cotton armor has the best rolls.


I'm pretty sure plate has better rolls than cotton (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif)
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post Jun 21 2013, 20:11
Post #4171
Tenboro

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QUOTE(skillchip @ Jun 21 2013, 18:14) *
So these are just made up values right? Not reality?


You can generalize that to apply to rolling stats in the 95th percentile of the range, assuming your total loot quality adds up to capping the floor at 25. As LotD is a factor applied to the quality bonus, you can't calculate it that easily, but the floor cap does go all the way up to 75.
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post Jun 21 2013, 20:41
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QUOTE(cavecricket48 @ Jun 20 2013, 23:59) *

Hito why am I fighting your Eila.

Well, dat new formula is quite the quirky one, isn't it?

RNG? She's not so low you would never see her. Still PL925.
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post Jun 21 2013, 21:25
Post #4173
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QUOTE(Tenboro @ Jun 21 2013, 20:11) *

You can generalize that to apply to rolling stats in the 95th percentile of the range, assuming your total loot quality adds up to capping the floor at 25. As LotD is a factor applied to the quality bonus, you can't calculative it that easily, but the floor cap does go all the way up to 75.

Now we know the floor of DWD IWBTH with maxed LOTD. (75-100 averaging out to less than 86 is actually pretty common when rolling 10+ stats, plus people shouldn't be surprised that upper tier armor has a 5% chance of dropping on IWBTH)

Thanks, this is useful!
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post Jun 22 2013, 01:50
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25000 hath and 50000 hath.. small change, right? (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif)
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post Jun 22 2013, 02:42
Post #4175
skillchip



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QUOTE(Tenboro @ Jun 21 2013, 18:11) *

You can generalize that to apply to rolling stats in the 95th percentile of the range, assuming your total loot quality adds up to capping the floor at 25. As LotD is a factor applied to the quality bonus, you can't calculate it that easily, but the floor cap does go all the way up to 75.


QUOTE(Tenboro @ Mar 12 2013, 22:08) *

If it simply guaranteed a minimum value, it would still increase "average" quality, but it would not increase the chance of getting a keeper. So to be specific: the system does indeed work in a way that increases the odds of getting high quality equipment, because it increases the lower bound of the stat rolls, it doesn't simply guarantee a roll above a certain value.

It was changed some time back, but the way the system currently determines a stat is to roll a value between x and 200, then put that through an exponential function that results in a value q between 0 and 1. This is multiplied by the stat variance and finally added to the base minimum stat, giving a final stat somewhere between the minimum and maximum allowed stat, before it goes on to the other parts of the equipment generator.

The various quality modifiers are all combined into one value between 0 and 0.75, which is multiplied by 200 to give the lower bound of that initial roll, which is x above. So if you have a maxed combined quality bonus of 0.75, it will roll a value between 150 and 200.

(And the base quality score, for all intents and purposes, is the weighted average for q.)


Problem is we are not rolling against a fair linear system. The curve that determines q is exponential.

Let's assume a roll equal to or greater then 197 puts you in the 95th percentile, not a bad guess since the curve is exponential.

(I'm not going to drop 0 out of the possible rolls, so instead of rolling between 0 and 200 using 200 as the denominator, I will be using 201 because there are that many possible values, if this needs to be changed I will do so.)

Below is the chance of a single stat being high enough that if all other rolls are the same or better will put the gear into mag/legendary category.

Single Stat Roll:
0.00 quality mod: 1.99% (000-200)
0.25 quality mod: 2.65% (050-200)
0.50 quality mod: 3.96% (100-200)
0.75 quality mod: 7.84% (150-200)

Five Stat Roll (just single roll to the fifth power)
0.00 quality mod: 2.90*10^-7% (000-200) (1 in 345025251)
0.25 quality mod: 1.30*10^-6% (050-200) (1 in 076662818)
0.50 quality mod: 9.74*10^-6% (100-200) (1 in 010263770)
0.75 quality mod: 2.97*10^-4% (150-200) (1 in 000336939)

Ten Stat Roll (just single roll to the tenth power)
0.00 quality mod: 8.40*10^-16% (000-200) (1 in 1.19*10^17)
0.25 quality mod: 5.88*10^-14% (050-200) (1 in 5.87*10^15)
0.50 quality mod: 9.49*10^-13% (100-200) (1 in 1.05*10^14)
0.75 quality mod: 8.81*10^-12% (150-200) (1 in 1.14*10^11)
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post Jun 22 2013, 02:47
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Hope is a little bird.... that was quickly crushed.
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post Jun 22 2013, 02:48
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I am not a bird slayer
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post Jun 22 2013, 02:50
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QUOTE(skillchip @ Jun 21 2013, 17:48) *

I am not a bird slayer



Then what do you call that mountain of bodies that follows wherever you go?
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post Jun 22 2013, 03:06
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My pets
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post Jun 22 2013, 03:30
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QUOTE(skillchip @ Jun 22 2013, 08:06) *

My pets


You have weird fetishes (IMG:[invalid] style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif)
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